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新能源汽车和动力电池产业能否助力中国在2060年前实现碳中和目标?

Can the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and power battery industry help China to meet the carbon neutrality goal before 2060?

作者信息

Zahoor Aqib, Yu Yajuan, Zhang Hongliang, Nihed Benani, Afrane Sandylove, Peng Shuan, Sápi András, Lin Chen Jian, Mao Guozhu

机构信息

School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300350, China; National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage, Tianjin University, 300072, China.

Department of Energy and Environmental Materials, School of Materials Science & Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, 100081, Beijing, China; Beijing Institute of Technology Chongqing Innovation Center, Chongqing, 401120, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2023 Jun 15;336:117663. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117663. Epub 2023 Mar 7.

Abstract

China is working to boost the manufacture, market share, sales, and use of NEVs to replace fuel vehicles in transportation sector to get carbon reduction target by 2060. In this research, using Simapro life cycle assessment software and Eco-invent database, the market share, carbon footprint, and life cycle analysis of fuel vehicles, NEVs, and batteries were calculated from the last five years to next 25 years, with a focus on the sustainable development. Results indicate globally, China had 293.98 m vehicles and 45.22% worldwide highest market share, followed by Germany with 224.97 m and 42.22% shares. Annually China's NEVs production rate is 50%, and sales account for 35%, while the carbon footprint will account for 5.2 E+07 to 4.89 E+07 kgCO2e by 2021-2035. The power battery production 219.7 GWh reaches 150%-163.4%, whereas carbon footprint values in production and use stage of 1 kWh of LFP 44.0 kgCOeq, NCM-146.8 kgCOeq, and NCA-370 kgCOeq. The single carbon footprint of LFP is smallest at about 5.52 E+09, while NCM is highest at 1.84 E+10. Thus, using NEVs, and LFP batteries will reduce carbon emissions by 56.33%-103.14% and 56.33% or 0.64 Gt to 0.006 Gt by 2060. LCA analysis of NEVs and batteries at manufacturing and using stages quantified the environmental impact ranked from highest to lowest as ADP > AP > GWP > EP > POCP > ODP. ADP(e) and ADP(f) at manufacturing stage account for 14.7%, while other components account for 83.3% during the use stage. Conclusive findings are higher sales and use of NEVs, LFP, and reduction in coal-fired power generation from 70.92% to 50%, and increase in renewable energy sources in electricity generation expectedly will reduce carbon footprint by 31% and environmental impact on acid rain, ozone depletion, and photochemical smog. Finally, to achieve carbon neutrality in China, the NEVs industry must be supported by incentive policies, financial aid, technological improvements, and research and development. This would improve NEV's supply, demand, and environmental impact.

摘要

中国正在努力提高新能源汽车的制造、市场份额、销量和使用量,以在交通运输领域取代燃油汽车,从而实现2060年的碳减排目标。在本研究中,使用Simapro生命周期评估软件和Eco-invent数据库,计算了过去五年至未来25年燃油汽车、新能源汽车和电池的市场份额、碳足迹和生命周期分析,重点关注可持续发展。结果表明,在全球范围内,中国拥有2.9398亿辆汽车,占全球最高市场份额的45.22%,其次是德国,拥有2.2497亿辆,占比42.22%。中国新能源汽车的年产量率为50%,销量占35%,到2021年至2035年,碳足迹将占5.2×10⁷至4.89×10⁷千克二氧化碳当量。动力电池产量219.7吉瓦时达到150%-163.4%,而1千瓦时磷酸铁锂(LFP)、镍钴锰酸锂(NCM)和镍钴铝酸锂(NCA)在生产和使用阶段的碳足迹值分别为44.0千克二氧化碳当量、146.8千克二氧化碳当量和370千克二氧化碳当量。LFP的单位碳足迹最小,约为5.52×10⁹,而NCM最高,为1.84×10¹⁰。因此,到2060年,使用新能源汽车和LFP电池将分别减少56.33%-103.14%和56.33%的碳排放,即从0.64吉吨减少到0.006吉吨。对新能源汽车和电池在制造和使用阶段的生命周期评估分析量化了环境影响,从高到低依次为非生物性资源耗竭(ADP)> 酸化潜势(AP)> 全球变暖潜势(GWP)> 富营养化潜势(EP)> 光化学臭氧形成潜势(POCP)> 臭氧层破坏潜势(ODP)。制造阶段的非生物性资源耗竭(e)和非生物性资源耗竭(f)占14.7%,而在使用阶段其他成分占83.3%。结论是,新能源汽车、LFP的更高销量和使用,以及将燃煤发电从70.92%减少到50%,并预期增加可再生能源发电,将减少31%的碳足迹以及对酸雨、臭氧消耗和光化学烟雾的环境影响。最后,为了在中国实现碳中和,新能源汽车行业必须得到激励政策、财政援助、技术改进以及研发的支持。这将改善新能源汽车的供应、需求和环境影响。

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