Yu Rujie, Cong Longze, Hui Yijing, Zhao Dongchang, Yu Biying
Center for Energy and Environment Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin 300300, China.
China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin 300300, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 20;826:154102. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154102. Epub 2022 Feb 23.
Promoting new energy vehicles (NEVs) is the key to achieving net-zero emissions in the transportation sector. NEVs' total life cycle CO emissions are mainly determined by average vehicle lifespan, annual mileage traveled, energy carbon intensity and energy mix in the production stage. Current studies mainly adopt assumptions about NEVs' average lifespan due to limited available data. This paper expands on the previous studies by examining the NEVs' age and distribution based on the national representative China Compulsory Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles (CTALI) database from 2018 to 2020. Then, the survival patterns and lifespan of NEVs are assessed using Weibull distribution. New energy passenger vehicles' life cycle CO emissions are further evaluated based on the reshaped representative survival patterns. The results show that there are significant differences in survival patterns between conventional vehicles and NEVs. NEVs generally show a shorter average lifespan compared with conventional vehicles. Among NEVs, the average lifespan of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is better than that of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The survival patterns of several types of electric vehicles (including passenger battery electric vehicles, non-operating light battery electric buses, and light battery electric trucks) do not have a stable period in their first few years of operation. The life cycle assessment results show that the total life cycle CO emissions of passenger BEVs and PHEVs are lower than those of conventional vehicles. However, the short lifespan dramatically increases the passenger BEV and PHEV total life cycle CO emissions per kilometer, resulting in passenger BEV total life cycle CO emissions per kilometer being higher than those of conventional vehicles.
推广新能源汽车是实现交通运输领域净零排放的关键。新能源汽车的全生命周期碳排放主要由车辆平均使用寿命、年行驶里程、能源碳强度以及生产阶段的能源结构决定。由于可用数据有限，目前的研究主要采用关于新能源汽车平均使用寿命的假设。本文在前人研究的基础上进行拓展，基于具有全国代表性的2018年至2020年中国机动车交通事故责任强制保险（CTALI）数据库，研究新能源汽车的车龄和分布情况。然后，使用威布尔分布评估新能源汽车的生存模式和使用寿命。基于重塑的代表性生存模式，进一步评估新能源乘用车的生命周期碳排放。结果表明，传统车辆和新能源汽车的生存模式存在显著差异。与传统车辆相比，新能源汽车的平均使用寿命普遍较短。在新能源汽车中，插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）的平均使用寿命优于纯电动汽车（BEV）。几种类型的电动汽车（包括乘用车纯电动汽车、非营运轻型纯电动客车和轻型纯电动货车）在运营的最初几年中，其生存模式没有稳定期。生命周期评估结果表明，纯电动乘用车和插电式混合动力乘用车的全生命周期碳排放低于传统车辆。然而，较短的使用寿命显著增加了纯电动乘用车和插电式混合动力乘用车每公里的全生命周期碳排放，导致纯电动乘用车每公里的全生命周期碳排放高于传统车辆。
