National-Regional Joint Engineering Research Center for Soil Pollution Control and Remediation in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management, Institute of Eco-environmental and Soil Sciences, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China; Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.
National-Regional Joint Engineering Research Center for Soil Pollution Control and Remediation in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management, Institute of Eco-environmental and Soil Sciences, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 1;875:162654. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162654. Epub 2023 Mar 8.
Municipal solid waste (MSW) without proper managements could be a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. MSW incineration with electricity recovery (MSW-IER) is recognized as a sustainable way to utilize waste, but its effectiveness on reducing GHG emissions at the city scale in China remain unclear due to limited data of MSW compositions. The aim of the study is to investigate reduction potential of GHG from MSW-IER in China. Based on the MSW compositions covering 106 Chinese prefecture-level cities during the period of 1985 to 2016, random forest models were built to predict MSW compositions in Chinese cities. MSW compositions in 297 cities of China from 2002 to 2017 were predicted using the model trained by a combination of socio-economic, climate and spatiotemporal factors. Spatiotemporal and climatic factors (such as economic development level, precipitation) accounted for 6.5 %-20.7 % and 20.1 %-37.6 % to total contributions on MSW composition, respectively. The GHG emissions from MSW-IER in each Chinese city were further calculated based on the predicted MSW compositions. The plastic is the main GHG emission source, accounting for over 91 % of the total emission during 2002-2017. Compared to baseline (landfill) emission, the GHG emission reduction from MSW-IER was 12.5 × 10 kg CO-eq in 2002 and 415 × 10 kg CO-eq in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 26.3 %. The results provide basic data for estimating GHG emission in MSW management in China.
城市固体废物（MSW）如果管理不当，可能成为温室气体（GHG）排放的重要来源。垃圾焚烧与电能回收（MSW-IER）被认为是一种可持续的废物利用方式，但由于 MSW 成分数据有限，其在中国城市范围内减少 GHG 排放的效果仍不清楚。本研究旨在探讨中国 MSW-IER 减少 GHG 的潜力。基于 1985 年至 2016 年期间涵盖 106 个中国地级市的 MSW 成分数据，建立了随机森林模型来预测中国城市的 MSW 成分。利用结合社会经济、气候和时空因素的模型，预测了 2002 年至 2017 年中国 297 个城市的 MSW 成分。时空和气候因素（如经济发展水平、降水）分别占 MSW 成分的 6.5%-20.7%和 20.1%-37.6%。根据预测的 MSW 成分，进一步计算了中国每个城市 MSW-IER 的 GHG 排放量。在 2002-2017 年期间，塑料是主要的 GHG 排放源，占总排放量的 91%以上。与基准（垃圾填埋）排放相比，MSW-IER 的 GHG 减排量在 2002 年为 12.5×10kg CO-eq，在 2017 年为 415×10kg CO-eq，年均增长率为 26.3%。研究结果为中国 MSW 管理中 GHG 排放的估算提供了基础数据。
