Matthay Ellicott C, Kagawa Rose M C
Am J Epidemiol. 2023 Jul 7;192(7):1059-1063. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwad053.
In the last 30 years, 25 US states have relaxed laws regulating the concealed carrying of firearms (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws). These changes may have substantial impacts on violent crime. In a recent study, Doucette et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(3):342-355) used a synthetic control approach to assess the effects of shifting from more restrictive "may/no-issue" CCW laws to less restrictive "shall-issue" CCW laws on homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies involving a gun or committed by other means. The study adds to the evidence that more permissive CCW laws have probably increased rates of firearm assault in states adopting these laws. Importantly, this study is the first to identify that specific provisions of shall-issue CCW laws-including denying permits to persons with violent misdemeanor convictions, a history of dangerous behavior, or "questionable character" and live-fire training requirements-may help mitigate harms associated with shall-issue CCW laws. These findings are timely and salient given the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down a defining element of may-issue laws. This thorough study offers actionable results and provides a methodological model for state firearm policy evaluations. Its limitations reflect the needs of the field more broadly: greater focus on racial/ethnic equity and within-state variation, plus strengthening the data infrastructure on firearm violence and crime.
在过去30年里,美国25个州放宽了对枪支隐蔽携带的法律规定(隐蔽携带武器(CCW)法)。这些变化可能对暴力犯罪产生重大影响。在最近的一项研究中,杜塞特等人(《美国流行病学杂志》。2023年;192(3):342 - 355)采用合成控制法来评估从限制更严格的“可能/不发证”CCW法转变为限制较宽松的“应发证”CCW法对涉及枪支或通过其他手段实施的杀人、严重攻击和抢劫的影响。该研究进一步证明,在采用这些法律的州,更宽松的CCW法可能提高了枪支攻击率。重要的是,这项研究首次确定,“应发证”CCW法的具体条款——包括拒绝向有暴力轻罪定罪、危险行为史或“品行存疑”的人发放许可证以及实弹训练要求——可能有助于减轻与“应发证”CCW法相关的危害。鉴于最近最高法院推翻了“可能发证”法的一个决定性要素,这些发现既及时又突出。这项全面的研究提供了可采取行动的结果,并为州枪支政策评估提供了一个方法模型。其局限性更广泛地反映了该领域的需求:更加关注种族/族裔公平和州内差异,以及加强枪支暴力和犯罪的数据基础设施。