估算2021年墨西哥人际暴力的经济影响：预测2030年的三种假设情景。
Estimating the economic impact of interpersonal violence in Mexico in 2021: projecting three hypothetical scenarios for 2030.
作者信息
Cervantes Arturo, Jhunjhunwala Rashi, Castañeda Alcántara Isaac Deneb, Elizundia Cisneros María Eugenia, Ringel Roey, Cortes Rodriguez Alejandra, Del Valle Diana, Hill Sarah, Meara John Gerard, Uribe-Leitz Tarsicio
机构信息
Faculty of Health Sciences Universidad Anahuac Mexico Mexico City Mexico Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Anahuac Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Program in Global Surgery and Social Change Harvard Medical School Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School.
出版信息
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2023 Mar 10;47:e39. doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2023.39. eCollection 2023.
OBJECTIVE
To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021-2030.
METHODS
Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc).
RESULTS
The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican.
CONCLUSION
Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security.
目的
计算2021年墨西哥暴力事件的经济影响，并预测2021 - 2030年的成本。
方法
发病率数据来自国家公共安全系统执行秘书处（SESNSP）、国家人口委员会（CONAPO）、国家统计和地理研究所（INEGI）以及全国受害情况和公共安全认知调查（ENVIPE）。我们的模型纳入了与暴力相关事件（如杀人、住院、强奸、敲诈勒索、抢劫等）成本的发病率估计。
结果
2021年墨西哥犯罪和暴力的经济影响估计约为1920亿美元，相当于国家GDP的14.6%。到2030年将暴力减少50%，我们估计至少可节省1100亿美元。这意味着每家公司可节省1376372美元，每个墨西哥人可节省超过66771美元。
结论
暴力和杀人因其对健康、发展和经济增长的影响，已成为最紧迫的公共卫生和经济问题之一。由于成本低且影响大，预防是应对犯罪和暴力最有效的方式，也是旨在改善公民安全的可持续战略的重要组成部分。
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