Prognostic nomogram for estimating survival in patients with resected muscle-invasive bladder cancer receiving chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND

Chemotherapy has been proven to bring survival benefit in patients with resected muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), which is increasingly recommended. Our objective was to establish an effective model for estimating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in these patients.

METHODS

2,030 patients diagnosed with resected MIBC receiving chemotherapy were acquired from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database, which were randomized 7:3 into a primary set (1,421 patients) and an internal validation set (609 patients). Significant predictors for OS and CSS were identified by Cox regression models, which were then utilized to develop prognostic nomogram. The performance of the model was assessed by utilizing calibration, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Six independent prognostic factors, including age, race, histology, T stage, N stage and regional nodes examined, made up the nomogram. The AUCs of the primary cohort was 0.751 and 0.753 for 3- and 5- year OS and 0.751 and 0.754 for 3-and 5- year CSS, respectively. The calibration plots proved the nomograms' satisfactory discrimination. The results of DCA manifested that our models had an excellent clinical applicability. In addition, a risk stratification system was established according to the nomogram' risk score. Obvious difference was found in different groups ( < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The established prediction nomogram provides a simple-to-use tool for estimating the survival probability of resected MIBC patients treated with chemotherapy, which can assist clinicians make individualized treatment plans.