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超级人工智能可以通过增加新颖性来提高人类决策能力。

Superhuman artificial intelligence can improve human decision-making by increasing novelty.

机构信息

Department of Marketing, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China.

Department of Marketing, Yale School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Mar 21;120(12):e2214840120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214840120. Epub 2023 Mar 13.

Abstract

How will superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) affect human decision-making? And what will be the mechanisms behind this effect? We address these questions in a domain where AI already exceeds human performance, analyzing more than 5.8 million move decisions made by professional Go players over the past 71 y (1950 to 2021). To address the first question, we use a superhuman AI program to estimate the quality of human decisions across time, generating 58 billion counterfactual game patterns and comparing the win rates of actual human decisions with those of counterfactual AI decisions. We find that humans began to make significantly better decisions following the advent of superhuman AI. We then examine human players' strategies across time and find that novel decisions (i.e., previously unobserved moves) occurred more frequently and became associated with higher decision quality after the advent of superhuman AI. Our findings suggest that the development of superhuman AI programs may have prompted human players to break away from traditional strategies and induced them to explore novel moves, which in turn may have improved their decision-making.

摘要

超强人工智能(AI)将如何影响人类决策?这种影响背后的机制是什么?我们在一个 AI 已经超越人类表现的领域解决了这些问题,分析了过去 71 年(1950 年至 2021 年)超过 580 万次职业围棋选手的走法决策。为了解决第一个问题,我们使用一个超强的 AI 程序来估计人类决策的质量随时间的变化,生成 580 亿个反事实的游戏模式,并将实际人类决策的胜率与反事实 AI 决策的胜率进行比较。我们发现,自超强 AI 出现以来,人类开始做出明显更好的决策。然后,我们考察了人类选手随时间变化的策略,发现新的决策(即以前未观察到的走法)出现得更频繁,并在超强 AI 出现后与更高的决策质量相关联。我们的研究结果表明,超强 AI 程序的开发可能促使人类选手摆脱传统策略,并促使他们探索新的走法,从而可能提高他们的决策能力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf94/10041097/e24a5ad8e93e/pnas.2214840120fig01.jpg

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