Time-trends in liver cancer incidence and mortality rates in the U.S. from 1975 to 2017: a study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.

BACKGROUND

A previous study has examined the overall cancer statistics. However, more detailed statistics regarding liver cancer have not been provided. We evaluated the incidence and mortality trends of liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in the United States from 1975 to 2017 based on the data in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Age, gender, race, metastasis, tumor site, and tumor grade of patients were extracted from the SEER database. Codes C22.0 and C22.1 of the International Classification of Disease for Oncology were applied to identify patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and/or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Age-specified incidence, age-standardized incidence and mortality, 5-year relative survival, race-specific accumulative incidence and mortality, and geographic-specific accumulative mortality were calculated in different groups. Changes in trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality were assessed using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

The overall incidence increased significantly from 2.641/100,000 person-years in 1975 to 8.657/100,000 person-years in 2017 [average annual percent change (AAPC) =3.42, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.28-3.62, P<0.001]. The steepest incidence rate increase was observed in the 60-69-year-old age group (AAPC =4.40, 95% CI: 4.10-4.70, P<0.001). Males exhibited a more rapid increase in cancer incidence, from 3.928/100,000 to 13.128/100,000 person-years (AAPC =3.41, 95% CI: 3.21-3.61, P<0.001), than females [from 1.642/100,000 to 4.783/100,000 person-years (AAPC =3.03, 95% CI: 2.91-3.21, P=0.001)]. The overall mortality rate increased from 2.808/100,000 person-years in 1975 to 6.648/100,000 person-years in 2017 (AAPC =2.41, 95% CI: 2.29-2.51, P<0.001). The highest mortality rate was observed in Hawaii (6.996/100,000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and mortality rates of HCC and ICC increased from 1975 to 2017, especially in males, non-Hispanic Blacks and older individuals. Comprehensive policy and control measures should be implemented to reduce the burden of disease, particularly through health monitoring and intervention for high-risk groups.