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贝叶斯变量选择方法在混合线性回归模型中的研究。

Study of Bayesian variable selection method on mixed linear regression models.

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qujing Normal University, Qujing, China.

School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Mar 17;18(3):e0283100. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283100. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Variable selection has always been an important issue in statistics. When a linear regression model is used to fit data, selecting appropriate explanatory variables that strongly impact the response variables has a significant effect on the model prediction accuracy and interpretation effect. redThis study introduces the Bayesian adaptive group Lasso method to solve the variable selection problem under a mixed linear regression model with a hidden state and explanatory variables with a grouping structure. First, the definition of the implicit state mixed linear regression model is presented. Thereafter, the Bayesian adaptive group Lasso method is used to determine the penalty function and parameters, after which each parameter's specific form of the fully conditional posterior distribution is calculated. Moreover, the Gibbs algorithm design is outlined. Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the variable selection and parameter estimation effects in different states. Finally, a dataset of Alzheimer's Disease is used for application analysis. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can identify the observation from different hidden states, but the results of the variable selection in different states are obviously different.

摘要

变量选择一直是统计学中的一个重要问题。当使用线性回归模型拟合数据时,选择对响应变量有强烈影响的适当解释变量对模型预测精度和解释效果有重要影响。本研究引入贝叶斯自适应分组 Lasso 方法来解决具有隐藏状态和分组结构解释变量的混合线性回归模型中的变量选择问题。首先,给出了隐状态混合线性回归模型的定义。然后,使用贝叶斯自适应分组 Lasso 方法来确定惩罚函数和参数,之后计算每个参数的完全条件后验分布的具体形式。此外,概述了 Gibbs 算法的设计。通过仿真实验比较了不同状态下的变量选择和参数估计效果。最后,使用阿尔茨海默病数据集进行应用分析。结果表明,所提出的方法可以识别来自不同隐藏状态的观测值,但不同状态下的变量选择结果明显不同。

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本文引用的文献

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Bayesian quantile nonhomogeneous hidden Markov models.贝叶斯分位数非齐次隐马尔可夫模型。
Stat Methods Med Res. 2021 Jan;30(1):112-128. doi: 10.1177/0962280220942802. Epub 2020 Jul 29.
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The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.贝叶斯协方差套索
Stat Interface. 2013 Apr 1;6(2):243-259. doi: 10.4310/sii.2013.v6.n2.a8.
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Fixed and random effects selection in mixed effects models.混合效应模型中的固定效应和随机效应选择
Biometrics. 2011 Jun;67(2):495-503. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2010.01463.x. Epub 2010 Jul 21.

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