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古气候剧变数据库(PaleoJump database)。

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates.

机构信息

Department of Geosciences and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure, PSL University, Paris, France.

Geosciences Montpellier, CNRS, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 18;13(1):4472. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1.

Abstract

Tipping points (TPs) in Earth's climate system have been the subject of increasing interest and concern in recent years, given the risk that anthropogenic forcing could cause abrupt, potentially irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate records are essential for identifying past TPs and for gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying nonlinearities and bifurcation mechanisms. However, the quality, resolution, and reliability of these records can vary, making it important to carefully select the ones that provide the most accurate representation of past climates. Moreover, as paleoclimate time series vary in their origin, time spans, and periodicities, an objective, automated methodology is crucial for identifying and comparing TPs. To address these challenges, we introduce the open-source PaleoJump database, which contains a collection of carefully selected, high-resolution records originating in ice cores, marine sediments, speleothems, terrestrial records, and lake sediments. These records describe climate variability on centennial, millennial and longer time scales and cover all the continents and ocean basins. We provide an overview of their spatial distribution and discuss the gaps in coverage. Our statistical methodology includes an augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Recurrence Quantification Analysis; it is applied here, for illustration purposes, to selected records in which abrupt transitions are automatically detected and the presence of potential tipping elements is investigated. These transitions are shown in the PaleoJump database along with other essential information about the records, including location, temporal scale and resolution, as well as temporal plots. This open-source database represents, therefore, a valuable resource for researchers investigating TPs in past climates.

摘要

近年来,地球气候系统中的临界点(TPs)引起了越来越多的关注和担忧,因为人为强迫可能导致突然的、潜在的不可逆转的气候转变。古气候记录对于识别过去的 TPs 和深入了解潜在的非线性和分岔机制至关重要。然而,这些记录的质量、分辨率和可靠性可能会有所不同,因此仔细选择最能准确反映过去气候的记录非常重要。此外,由于古气候时间序列在起源、时间跨度和周期性方面存在差异,因此客观、自动化的方法对于识别和比较 TPs 至关重要。为了解决这些挑战,我们引入了开源的 PaleoJump 数据库,其中包含了精心挑选的、来自冰芯、海洋沉积物、石笋、陆地记录和湖泊沉积物的高分辨率记录的集合。这些记录描述了百年、千年和更长时间尺度上的气候变化,涵盖了所有的大陆和海洋盆地。我们提供了它们的空间分布概述,并讨论了覆盖范围的差距。我们的统计方法包括增强的柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验和递归定量分析;在这里,为了说明目的,我们将其应用于选定的记录中,这些记录中自动检测到了突然的转变,并研究了潜在的转折点元素的存在。这些转变与记录的其他重要信息一起显示在 PaleoJump 数据库中,包括位置、时间尺度和分辨率,以及时间图。因此,这个开源数据库是研究过去气候中的 TPs 的研究人员的宝贵资源。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c33f/10024733/b5bcc7c2f319/41598_2023_30592_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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