Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
The World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland.
Nat Commun. 2023 Mar 21;14(1):1569. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x.
Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control global pandemics and support economic recovery. We analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing effect, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized COVID-19 vaccine distribution scenarios. We find that an equitable vaccine distribution across the world would increase global economic benefits by 11.7% ($950 billion per year), compared to a scenario focusing on vaccinating the entire population within vaccine-producing countries first and then distributing vaccines to non-vaccine-producing countries. With limited doses among low-income countries, prioritizing the elderly who are at high risk of dying, together with the key front-line workforce who are at high risk of exposure is projected to be economically beneficial (e.g., 0.9%~3.4% annual GDP in India). Our results reveal how equitable distributions would cascade more protection of vaccines to people and ways to improve vaccine equity and accessibility globally through international collaboration.
确保全球疫苗更公平的分配是控制全球大流行和支持经济复苏的有效策略。我们分析了一系列理想化的 COVID-19 疫苗分配方案的社会经济影响 - 定义为健康收益、放宽封锁效应和供应链重建效益。我们发现，与专注于首先在疫苗生产国为所有人接种疫苗，然后向非疫苗生产国分发疫苗的方案相比，在全球范围内公平分配疫苗将使全球经济受益增加 11.7%（每年 9500 亿美元）。在低收入国家疫苗剂量有限的情况下，优先考虑高风险死亡的老年人以及高风险暴露的关键一线工作人员预计在经济上是有益的（例如，印度每年 GDP 的 0.9%至 3.4%）。我们的研究结果揭示了公平分配如何将更多的疫苗保护递送给人们，以及通过国际合作改善全球疫苗公平性和可及性的方法。
