Grinberger A Yair, Felsenstein Daniel
Department of Geography, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Lett Spat Resour Sci. 2023;16(1):10. doi: 10.1007/s12076-023-00336-w. Epub 2023 Mar 17.
The effectiveness and political feasibility of COVID-19 containment measures such as lockdowns, are contentious. This stems in part from an absence of tools for their rigorous evaluation. Common epidemiological models such as the SEIR model generally lack the spatial resolution required for micro-level containment actions, the visualization capabilities for communicating measures such as localized lockdowns and the scenario-testing capabilities for assessing different alternatives. We present an individual-level ABM that generates geo-social networks animated by agent-agent and agent-building interactions. The model simulates real-world contexts and is demonstrated for the city of Jerusalem. Simulation outputs yield much useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns. These include network-generated socio-spatial contagion chains for individual agents, dynamic building level contagion processes and neighborhood-level patterns of COVID-19 imports and exports useful in identifying super-spreader neighborhoods. The policy implications afforded by these various outputs are discussed.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12076-023-00336-w.
封锁等新冠疫情防控措施的有效性和政治可行性存在争议。部分原因在于缺乏对其进行严格评估的工具。常见的流行病学模型，如SEIR模型，通常缺乏微观层面防控行动所需的空间分辨率、传达局部封锁等措施的可视化能力以及评估不同替代方案的情景测试能力。我们提出了一种个体层面的基于主体的模型（ABM），该模型生成由主体-主体和主体-建筑交互驱动的地理社交网络。该模型模拟现实世界情境，并以耶路撒冷市为例进行了演示。模拟输出为评估封锁的有效性提供了许多有用信息。这些信息包括针对个体主体由网络生成的社会空间传播链、动态建筑层面的传播过程以及有助于识别超级传播社区的新冠疫情进出口邻里层面模式。讨论了这些不同输出所带来的政策影响。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s12076-023-00336-w获取的补充材料。
