Arriaga-Nieto Lumumba, Hernández-Bautista Porfirio Felipe, Vallejos-Parás Alfonso, Grajales-Muñiz Concepción, Rojas-Mendoza Teresita, Cabrera-Gaytán David Alejandro, Grijalva-Otero Israel, Cacho-Díaz Bernardo, Jaimes-Betancourt Leticia, Padilla-Velazquez Rosario, Valle-Alvarado Gabriel, Perez-Andrade Yadira, Ovalle-Luna Oscar David, Rivera-Mahey Mónica
Epidemiologic Surveillance Coordination, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mexico City, Mexico.
Coordination of Supplies Quality Control, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mexico City, Mexico.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2022 Mar 25;2(3):e0000137. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000137. eCollection 2022.
The Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) virus infections have been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). GBS has an estimated lethality of 4% to 8%, even with effective treatment. Mexico is considered a hyperendemic country for DENV due to the circulation of four serotypes, and the ZIKV and CHIKV viruses have also been circulating in the country. The objective of this study was to predict the number of GBS cases in relation to the cumulative incidence of ZIKV / DENV / CHIKV in Mexico from 2014 to 2019. A six-year time series ecological study was carried out from GBS cases registered in the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Epidemiological Surveillance System (ESS), and DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV estimated cases from cases registered in the epidemiological vector-borne diseases surveillance system. The results shows that the incidence of GBS in Mexico is positively correlated with DENV and ZIKV. For every 1,000 estimated DENV cases, 1.45 GBS cases occurred on average, and for every 1,000 estimated ZIKV cases, 1.93 GBS cases occurred on average. A negative correlation between GBS and CHIKV estimated cases was found. The increase in the incidence of GBS cases in Mexico can be predicted by observing DENV and ZIKV cases through the epidemiological surveillance systems. These results can be useful in public health by providing the opportunity to improve capacities for the prevention of arbovirus diseases and for the timely procurement of supplies for the treatment of GBS.
登革热病毒（DENV）、寨卡病毒（ZIKV）和基孔肯雅病毒（CHIKV）感染均与吉兰-巴雷综合征（GBS）有关。即使接受有效治疗，GBS的致死率估计仍为4%至8%。由于四种血清型病毒的传播，墨西哥被视为登革热病毒的高度流行国家，寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒也在该国传播。本研究的目的是预测2014年至2019年墨西哥与寨卡病毒/登革热病毒/基孔肯雅病毒累计发病率相关的GBS病例数。我们基于急性弛缓性麻痹（AFP）流行病学监测系统（ESS）中登记的GBS病例，以及虫媒传染病监测系统中登记病例估算的登革热病毒、寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒病例，开展了一项为期六年的时间序列生态学研究。结果显示，墨西哥GBS的发病率与登革热病毒和寨卡病毒呈正相关。每1000例估算的登革热病毒病例平均出现1.45例GBS病例，每1000例估算的寨卡病毒病例平均出现1.93例GBS病例。研究发现GBS与估算的基孔肯雅病毒病例之间呈负相关。通过流行病学监测系统观察登革热病毒和寨卡病毒病例，可以预测墨西哥GBS病例发病率的上升。这些结果有助于公共卫生领域，为提高虫媒病毒疾病的预防能力以及及时采购GBS治疗用品提供了契机。
