BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of seizures can help to direct resource-intense continuous electroencephalogram (CEEG) monitoring to neonates at high risk of seizures. We aimed to use data from standardised EEG reports to generate seizure prediction models for vulnerable neonates.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we included neonates who underwent CEEG during the first 30 days of life at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (Philadelphia, PA, USA). The hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy subgroup included only patients with CEEG data during the first 5 days of life, International Classification of Diseases, revision 10, codes for hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy, and documented therapeutic hypothermia. In January, 2018, we implemented a novel CEEG reporting system within the electronic medical record (EMR) using common data elements that incorporated standardised terminology. All neonatal CEEG data from Jan 10, 2018, to Feb 15, 2022, were extracted from the EMR using age at the time of CEEG. We developed logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest models of neonatal seizure prediction using EEG features on day 1 to predict seizures on future days.

FINDINGS

We evaluated 1117 neonates, including 150 neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy, with CEEG data reported using standardised templates between Jan 10, 2018, and Feb 15, 2022. Implementation of a consistent EEG reporting system that documents discrete and standardised EEG variables resulted in more than 95% reporting of key EEG features. Several EEG features were highly correlated, and patients could be clustered on the basis of specific features. However, no simple combination of features adequately predicted seizure risk. We therefore applied computational models to complement clinical identification of neonates at high risk of seizures. Random forest models incorporating background features performed with classification accuracies of up to 90% (95% CI 83-94) for all neonates and 97% (88-99) for neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy; recall (sensitivity) of up to 97% (91-100) for all neonates and 100% (100-100) for neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy; and precision (positive predictive value) of up to 92% (84-96) in the overall cohort and 97% (80-99) in neonates with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy.

INTERPRETATION

Using data extracted from the standardised EEG report on the first day of CEEG, we predict the presence or absence of neonatal seizures on subsequent days with classification performances of more than 90%. This information, incorporated into routine care, could guide decisions about the necessity of continuing EEG monitoring beyond the first day, thereby improving the allocation of limited CEEG resources. Additionally, this analysis shows the benefits of standardised clinical data collection, which can drive learning health system approaches to personalised CEEG use.

FUNDING

Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, the Hartwell Foundation, the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and the Wolfson Foundation.