Department of Radiation Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.218, Jixi Road, Hefei, 230022, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
Department of Oncology, The Third People's Hospital of Hefei, No. 204, Wangjiang East Road, Baohe District, Hefei, 230022, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 26;13(1):4931. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32171-w.
This study analyzed the impact of factors affecting overall survival in patients with pT2N0M0 esophageal squamous carcinoma (ESCC) and developed a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). We reviewed the clinical data of 413 patients with pathological T2N0M0 ESCC after radical esophagectomy in two hospitals. Data from one institution was used as the training cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression for identifying the prognostic factors affecting for OS in ESCC patients. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate prognostic efficacy, which was validated in an independent validation cohort. In the training cohort (N = 304), the median OS was 69.33 months, and the 3-, 5- and 10-year OS rates were 76.80%, 67.00% and 56.90%, respectively. The median OS of the validation cohort (N = 109) was 73.50 months, and the 3-, 5- and 10-year OS rates were 77.00%, 67.80% and 55.60%, respectively. According to Cox univariate and multivariate analyses, sex, age, tumor length and the number of resected lymph nodes were identified as predictors of OS. We developed nomograms and performed internal and external validation. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) value, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed good prediction ability of the nomogram. The developed nomogram can effectively predict OS after esophagectomy in patients with pT2N0M0 ESCC.
本研究分析了影响 pT2N0M0 食管鳞癌（ESCC）患者总生存的因素，并构建了列线图来预测总生存（OS）。我们回顾了两家医院接受根治性食管切除术后病理 T2N0M0 ESCC 患者的临床资料。一家机构的数据被用作训练队列。使用 Cox 比例风险回归建立列线图，以确定影响 ESCC 患者 OS 的预后因素。使用曲线下面积（AUC）、校准曲线和决策曲线分析（DCA）来评估预后效能，并在独立验证队列中进行验证。在训练队列（N=304）中，中位 OS 为 69.33 个月，3、5 和 10 年 OS 率分别为 76.80%、67.00%和 56.90%。验证队列（N=109）的中位 OS 为 73.50 个月，3、5 和 10 年 OS 率分别为 77.00%、67.80%和 55.60%。根据 Cox 单因素和多因素分析，性别、年龄、肿瘤长度和切除淋巴结数量被确定为 OS 的预测因素。我们开发了列线图并进行了内部和外部验证。时间依赖性接受者操作特征（ROC）曲线和曲线下面积（AUC）值、校准曲线和决策曲线分析（DCA）显示列线图具有良好的预测能力。该列线图可有效预测 pT2N0M0 ESCC 患者根治性食管切除术后的 OS。
