Florez Daniela, Young Alyssa J, Bernabé Kerlly J, Hyman James M, Qu Zhuolin
Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2023 Mar 9;8(3):162. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8030162.
infection in mosquitoes can render mosquitoes less capable of spreading malaria. We developed and analyzed a mechanistic compartmental ordinary differential equation model to evaluate the effectiveness of -based vector control strategies among wild mosquitoes in Haiti. The model tracks the mosquito life stages, including egg, larva, and adult (male and female). It also accounts for critical biological effects, such as the maternal transmission of through infected females and cytoplasmic incompatibility, which effectively sterilizes uninfected females when they mate with infected males. We derive and interpret dimensionless numbers, including the basic reproductive number and next-generation numbers. The proposed system presents a backward bifurcation, which indicates a threshold infection that needs to be exceeded to establish a stable infection. The sensitivity analysis ranks the relative importance of the epidemiological parameters at baseline. We simulate different intervention scenarios, including prerelease mitigation using larviciding and thermal fogging before the release, multiple releases of infected populations, and different release times of the year. Our simulations show that the most efficient approach to establishing is to release all the infected mosquitoes immediately after the prerelease mitigation process. Moreover, the model predicts that it is more efficient to release during the dry season than the wet season.
蚊子感染会使蚊子传播疟疾的能力降低。我们开发并分析了一个基于机制的房室常微分方程模型，以评估海地野生蚊子中基于[具体内容缺失]的病媒控制策略的有效性。该模型追踪蚊子的生命阶段，包括卵、幼虫和成虫（雄性和雌性）。它还考虑了关键的生物学效应，如通过受感染雌蚊的母体传播以及细胞质不相容性，当未感染的雌蚊与感染的雄蚊交配时，细胞质不相容性会有效地使它们绝育。我们推导并解释了无量纲数，包括基本繁殖数和下一代数。所提出的系统呈现出向后分岔，这表明需要超过一个阈值感染才能建立稳定的[具体内容缺失]感染。敏感性分析对基线时流行病学参数的相对重要性进行了排序。我们模拟了不同的干预场景，包括在释放前使用杀幼虫剂和热烟雾剂进行预释放缓解、多次释放感染种群以及一年中的不同释放时间。我们的模拟表明，建立[具体内容缺失]的最有效方法是在预释放缓解过程后立即释放所有感染蚊子。此外，该模型预测在旱季释放比在雨季释放更有效。
