Ilic Irena, Ilic Milena
Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2023 Mar 13;8(3):169. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8030169.
Cholera is a large public health issue, especially in countries with limited resources. The aim of the study was to determine trends in global cholera mortality from 1990-2019.
This research is an observational, descriptive epidemiological study. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000 population) of cholera mortality from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis (by calculating Odds Ratio-OR, with corresponding 95% Confidence Interval-95% CI).
From 1990-2019 in the world, the number of deaths due to cholera in both sexes together increased, ranging from 83,045 in 1990 to 117,167 in 2019. During the observed period, there were about 3.0 million deaths due to cholera in the world. In both sexes together in 2019, the cholera mortality rate was the highest in Nigeria (ARS = 39.19) and Central African Republic (ARS = 38.80), followed by populations in Eritrea (ARS = 17.62) and Botswana (ARS = 13.77). Globally, cholera-related mortality significantly decreased in males (AAPC = -0.4%, 95% CI = -0.7 to -0.1), while a stable trend was noted in females (AAPC = -0.1%, 95% CI = -0.4 to 0.2) in the observed period. In the African Region, significantly increasing cholera-related mortality trends were observed both in males and females (AAPC = 1.3% and AAPC = 1.1%, respectively).
Cholera mortality showed a constantly increasing trend in the African Region over the last three decades. More efforts in cholera management are necessary for effective response to the growing mortality in developing countries.
霍乱是一个重大的公共卫生问题,尤其是在资源有限的国家。本研究的目的是确定1990年至2019年全球霍乱死亡率的趋势。
本研究是一项观察性、描述性流行病学研究。通过连接点回归分析(计算比值比-OR,并给出相应的95%置信区间-95%CI)评估1990年至2019年霍乱死亡率的年龄标准化率(每10万人口中的ASR)。
1990年至2019年期间,全球霍乱导致的男女死亡总数有所增加,从1990年的83045例增至2019年的117167例。在观察期内,全球约有300万人死于霍乱。2019年,尼日利亚(年龄标准化率=39.19)和中非共和国(年龄标准化率=38.80)的霍乱死亡率最高,其次是厄立特里亚(年龄标准化率=17.62)和博茨瓦纳(年龄标准化率=13.77)的人群。在全球范围内,观察期内男性霍乱相关死亡率显著下降(年龄变化百分比=-0.4%,95%CI=-0.7至-0.1),而女性呈稳定趋势(年龄变化百分比=-0.1%,95%CI=-0.4至0.2)。在非洲区域,男性和女性的霍乱相关死亡率均呈显著上升趋势(年龄变化百分比分别为1.3%和1.1%)。
在过去三十年中,非洲区域的霍乱死亡率呈持续上升趋势。为有效应对发展中国家不断上升的死亡率,有必要在霍乱管理方面做出更多努力。