Li Xinhua, Zhang Lei, Chen Nong, Huang Yingwei, Tan Fangying, Li Sen, Shi Yiwen
Heilongjiang Province Meteorological Service Center, Harbin, China.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2023 May;67(5):875-886. doi: 10.1007/s00484-023-02462-y. Epub 2023 Apr 3.
As an important food crop in China, changes in suitable areas for rice planting are critical to agricultural production. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to pick the main climatic factors affecting single-season rice planting distribution and project the potential changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It was clear that rice planting distribution was significantly affected by annual total precipitation, the accumulated temperature during a period in which daily temperature was ≥ 10 °C, the moisture index, total precipitation during April-September, and continuous days during the period of daily temperature ≥ 18 °C, with their contribution being 97.6%. There was a continuous decrease in the area of good and high suitability for rice planting projected from 2021-2040 to 2061-2080, with a respective value ranging from 1.49 × 10 km to 0.93 × 10 km under the RCP4.5 scenario and from 1.42 × 10 km to 0.66 × 10 km under RCP8.5 scenarios. In 2081-2100, there was a bit increase in the area of good and high suitability under the RCP4.5 scenario. The most significant increases in good and high suitability were detected in Northeast China, while obvious decreases were demonstrated in the Yangtze River Basin which might be exposed to extreme temperature threat. The spatial potential planting center was characterized by the largest planting area in 25°N-37°N and 98°E-134°E. The north boundary and center of rice cultivation arose to 53.5°N and 37.52°N, respectively. These potential distributions for single-season rice under future climate change can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing rice planting layout, improving cultivation, and adjusting variety and management systems in response to climate change.
作为中国重要的粮食作物，水稻种植适宜区的变化对农业生产至关重要。本研究利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）选取影响单季稻种植分布的主要气候因子，并预测了在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的潜在变化。结果表明，年总降水量、日温≥10℃期间的积温、湿润指数、4-9月总降水量以及日温≥18℃期间的持续天数对水稻种植分布有显著影响，其贡献率达97.6%。预计从2021-2040年到2061-2080年，水稻种植适宜性良好和高度适宜的面积持续减少，在RCP4.5情景下，面积分别从1.49×10平方千米降至0.93×10平方千米；在RCP8.5情景下，面积分别从1.42×10平方千米降至0.66×10平方千米。2081-2100年，RCP4.5情景下适宜性良好和高度适宜的面积略有增加。适宜性良好和高度适宜增加最显著的地区在东北地区，而长江流域可能面临极端温度威胁，面积明显减少。空间潜在种植中心的特点是在北纬25°-37°和东经98°-134°种植面积最大。水稻种植的北界和中心分别上升到北纬53.5°和北纬37.52°。未来气候变化下单季稻的这些潜在分布可为优化水稻种植布局、改进栽培方式以及调整品种和管理系统以应对气候变化提供理论依据。
