Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, 650500, PR China.
Yunnan Provincial Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Water-Soil-Crop System in Seasonal Arid Region, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, 650500, PR China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Nov;68(11):2413-2429. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02757-8. Epub 2024 Aug 19.
Rice is one of the major food crops, and the study of suitable planting areas for rice plays an important role in improving rice yield and optimizing the production layout. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate and predict the distribution of suitable rice planting areas in China from 1981 to 2020 by combining the climate, soil, and human activities, analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of suitable rice planting areas in China, and determined the main factors affecting rice planting suitability. The results indicated that the main factors influencing the distribution of suitable planting areas for rice in China were gross domestic product (GDP), population density (Pop), and annual sunshine duration (Sun), with human activities playing a dominant role. The high suitable planting areas of rice were mainly distributed in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guangdong, southeastern Sichuan and western Guizhou. The total suitable planting areas for rice were 346.00 × 10 km, 345.66 × 10 km, 347.01 × 10 km, and 355.57 × 10 km from 1981 to 1990, 1991 to 2000, 2001 to 2010 and 2011 to 2020, respectively. With the passage of time, the area of unsuitable areas for rice gradually decreased, and the area of medium suitable areas increased, with large changes in the area of high- and low-suitable areas. Moreover, due to the transfer of a large number of rural laborers to the cities in recent years, the tension between people and land caused by the population explosion has led to the increasing impact of Pop on rice suitable areas and the relatively weakening of the impact of GDP on rice production interventions. The results can be used to provide scientific evidence for the management of rice cultivation and food production safety, with a view to reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the context of global climate change.
水稻是主要的粮食作物之一，研究其适宜种植区对提高水稻产量和优化生产布局具有重要意义。本研究利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型，结合气候、土壤和人类活动，模拟和预测了 1981 年至 2020 年中国适宜水稻种植区的分布情况，分析了中国适宜水稻种植区的时空变化，确定了影响水稻种植适宜性的主要因素。结果表明，影响中国适宜种植区分布的主要因素是国内生产总值（GDP）、人口密度（Pop）和年日照时间（Sun），其中人类活动起主导作用。水稻高适宜种植区主要分布在湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、广东、四川东南部和贵州西部。从 1981 年到 1990 年、1991 年到 2000 年、2001 年到 2010 年和 2011 年到 2020 年，中国水稻的总适宜种植面积分别为 346.00×10km、345.66×10km、347.01×10km和 355.57×10km。随着时间的推移，水稻不适宜种植区的面积逐渐减少，中适宜种植区的面积增加，高、低适宜种植区的面积变化较大。此外，由于近年来大量农村劳动力转移到城市，人口爆炸导致的人与地之间的紧张关系，使得人口对水稻适宜区的影响越来越大，而 GDP 对水稻生产的干预作用相对减弱。研究结果可为水稻种植管理和粮食生产安全提供科学依据，以期在全球气候变化背景下减少气候变化对农业生产的影响。
