A Nomogram Based on Nutrition-Related Indicators and Computed Tomography Imaging Features for Predicting Preoperative Lymph Node Metastasis in Curatively Resected Esophagogastric Junction Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUNDS

Preoperative noninvasive tools to predict pretreatment lymph node metastasis (PLNM) status accurately for esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EJA) are few. Thus, the authors aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting PLNM in curatively resected EJA.

METHODS

This study enrolled 638 EJA patients who received curative surgery resection and divided them randomly (7:3) into training and validation groups. For nomogram construction, 26 candidate parameters involving 21 preoperative clinical laboratory blood nutrition-related indicators, computed tomography (CT)-reported tumor size, CT-reported PLNM, gender, age, and body mass index were screened.

RESULTS

In the training group, Lasso regression included nine nutrition-related blood indicators in the PLNM-prediction nomogram. The PLNM prediction nomogram yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.741 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.697-0.781), which was better than that of the CT-reported PLNM (0.635; 95% CI 0.588-0.680; p < 0.0001). Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still gave good discrimination (0.725 [95% CI 0.658-0.785] vs 0.634 [95% CI 0.563-0.700]; p = 0.0042). Good calibration and a net benefit were observed in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presented a nomogram incorporating preoperative nutrition-related blood indicators and CT imaging features that might be used as a convenient tool to facilitate the preoperative individualized prediction of PLNM for patients with curatively resected EJA.