Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, 08028, USA.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 4;13(1):5482. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall locations of > 37,000 synthetic TCs that impact the U.S. Northeast from the pre-industrial era (prior to 1800) through a very high emissions future (RCP8.5; 2080-2100). TC genesis in the Main Development Region decreases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest decreases in the proportion of genesis (up to 80.49%) occurring in the early and late seasons. Conversely, TC genesis in a region near the U.S. southeast coast increases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest increases in the proportion of genesis (up to 286.45%) also occurring in the early and late seasons. Impacts of changing TC genesis locations are highlighted by variations in where TCs make their first landfall over the same time periods, with an increase in landfalls along the mid-Atlantic seaboard from Delaware to North Carolina during all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future.
热带气旋（TC）是威胁美国海岸线的最危险灾害之一。当它们发生在人口密集地区，如美国东北部时，它们可能特别具有破坏性。在这里，我们研究了从工业化前（1800 年前）到非常高排放未来（RCP8.5；2080-2100 年）期间，影响美国东北部的超过 37000 个合成 TC 的季节性生成和随后首次登陆位置的变化。在整个季节的所有部分，主要发展区域的 TC 生成都减少了，从工业化前到未来，生成比例的最大减少（高达 80.49%）发生在早期和晚期。相反，美国东南海岸附近一个地区的 TC 生成在整个季节的所有部分都增加了，从工业化前到未来，生成比例的最大增加（高达 286.45%）也发生在早期和晚期。随着 TC 生成位置的变化，TC 首次登陆的位置也发生了变化，这突出了变化的影响，从工业化前到未来，在整个季节的所有部分，从特拉华州到北卡罗来纳州的大西洋中部沿海地区的登陆次数都有所增加。
