Environmental Defense Fund, 18 Tremont St, Suite 850, Boston, MA, 02108, USA.
Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, 111-B Fernow Hall, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
Ambio. 2023 Aug;52(8):1314-1326. doi: 10.1007/s13280-023-01859-8. Epub 2023 Apr 20.
Iceland's fisheries system is well-governed, data-rich, and has adapted to past ecological change. It thus provides an opportunity to identify social-ecological attributes of climate resilience and interactions among them. We elicited barriers and enabling conditions for adaptation in Iceland's fisheries from semi-structured expert interviews, using projections of fish habitat shifts by mid-century to guide discussion. Interviewees highlighted flexible management, highly connected institutions that facilitate learning, ample assets to expand adaptive options, and cultural comfort with change. However, examining how these attributes interact in reinforcing feedback loops revealed potential rigidity traps, where optimization for resilience to stock shifts may render the system more vulnerable to extreme environmental change and social backlash. This study articulates resilience attributes that Iceland and other fisheries systems might prioritize as the climate changes. It further explores circumstances in which these same attributes risk forming traps, and potential pathways to escape them.
冰岛的渔业系统管理良好，数据丰富，并能适应过去的生态变化。因此，它为识别气候弹性的社会-生态属性及其相互作用提供了机会。我们从半结构化的专家访谈中得出了冰岛渔业适应的障碍和有利条件，使用本世纪中叶鱼类栖息地变化的预测来指导讨论。受访者强调了灵活的管理、高度互联的机构以促进学习、充足的资产来扩大适应选择，以及对变革的文化接受度。然而，考察这些属性如何在加强反馈循环中相互作用，揭示了潜在的僵化陷阱，即对种群变化的弹性优化可能使系统更容易受到极端环境变化和社会反弹的影响。本研究阐述了冰岛和其他渔业系统在气候变化时可能需要优先考虑的弹性属性。它进一步探讨了这些属性在何种情况下可能形成陷阱，以及摆脱陷阱的潜在途径。
