The Second Department of General Surgery, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China.
Gansu Province Key Laboratory Biotherapy and Regenerative Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 20;13(1):6434. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-33499-z.
To model the COVID-19 infection and develop effective control measures, this paper proposes an SEIR-type epidemic model considering the impact of face-mask wearing and vaccination. Firstly, the effective reproduction number and the threshold conditions are obtained. Secondly, based on the data of South Korea from January 20, 2022 to March 21, 2022, the model parameters are estimated. Finally, a sensitivity analysis and the numerical study are conducted. The results show that the face-mask wearing is associated with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reductions in the numbers of cumulative cases and newly confirmed cases, respectively, after a period of 60 days, when the face mask wearing rate increases by [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, the vaccination rate is associated with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reductions in the numbers of cumulative cases and the newly confirmed cases, respectively, after the same period of 60 days when the vaccination rate is increased by [Formula: see text]. A combined measure involving face-mask wearing and vaccination may be more effective and reasonable in preventing and controlling this infection. It is also suggested that disease control departments should strongly recommended the wearing of face masks s as well as vaccination to prevent the unvaccinated people from becoming infected.
为了对 COVID-19 感染建模并制定有效的控制措施,本文提出了一个考虑口罩佩戴和疫苗接种影响的 SEIR 型传染病模型。首先,得到了有效繁殖数和阈值条件。其次,基于 2022 年 1 月 20 日至 2022 年 3 月 21 日韩国的数据,对模型参数进行了估计。最后,进行了敏感性分析和数值研究。结果表明,在 60 天后,当口罩佩戴率增加[Formula: see text]时,口罩佩戴分别与累计病例数和新确诊病例数减少[Formula: see text]和[Formula: see text]相关;此外,在相同的 60 天内,当疫苗接种率增加[Formula: see text]时,疫苗接种分别与累计病例数和新确诊病例数减少[Formula: see text]和[Formula: see text]相关。在预防和控制这种感染方面,结合口罩佩戴和疫苗接种的综合措施可能更有效和合理。研究还建议疾病控制部门强烈建议佩戴口罩和接种疫苗,以防止未接种疫苗的人感染。