Mehranbod Christina A, Gobaud Ariana N, Branas Charles C, Chen Qixuan, Giovenco Daniel P, Humphreys David K, Rundle Andrew G, Bushover Brady R, Morrison Christopher N
Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
Alcohol Clin Exp Res (Hoboken). 2023 Jun;47(6):1119-1131. doi: 10.1111/acer.15091. Epub 2023 May 3.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and control measures changed alcohol consumption in the United States (US) and globally. Before the pandemic, alcohol-impaired crashes contributed to approximately one-third of all road traffic crash injuries and fatalities nationally. We examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crashes and examined differences in alcohol-involved crashes across various subgroups.
The University of California Berkeley Transportation Injury Mapping Systems provided information on all crashes reported to the California Highway Patrol from January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2021. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models applied to weekly time series data, we estimated the effect of California's first mandatory statewide shelter-in-place order (March 19, 2020) on crashes per 100,000 population. We also examined crash subgroups according to crash severity, sex, race/ethnicity, age, and alcohol involvement.
In California, the mean crash rate per week before the pandemic (January 1, 2016-March 18, 2020) was 9.5 crashes per 100,000 population, and 10.3% of those were alcohol-involved. After the initiation of the COVID-19 stay-at-home order, the percentage of crashes that were alcohol-involved rose to 12.7%. Overall, the crash rate across California decreased significantly (-4.6 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: -5.3, -3.9), including across all examined subgroups, with the greatest decrease among the least severe crashes. However, there was a 2.3% absolute increase in the proportion of crashes that were alcohol-involved (0.02 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.03).
The initiation of a COVID-19 stay-at-home ordinance in California was associated with a substantial decrease in overall crash rates. While crashes have returned to pre-pandemic levels, alcohol-involved crashes remain elevated. The initiation of the stay-at-home order significantly increased alcohol-impaired driving, which has remained elevated.
2020年，新冠疫情及防控措施改变了美国乃至全球的酒精消费情况。在疫情之前，因酒精影响导致的撞车事故在全国所有道路交通碰撞受伤和死亡事故中约占三分之一。我们研究了新冠疫情对撞车事故的影响，并考察了不同亚组中涉及酒精的撞车事故差异。
加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校交通伤害地图系统提供了2016年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间向加利福尼亚州公路巡逻队报告的所有撞车事故信息。使用应用于每周时间序列数据的自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型，我们估计了加利福尼亚州首个全州范围强制居家令（2020年3月19日）对每10万人口撞车事故的影响。我们还根据撞车事故的严重程度、性别、种族/族裔、年龄和是否涉及酒精对撞车事故亚组进行了考察。
在加利福尼亚州，疫情之前（2016年1月1日至2020年3月18日）每周的平均撞车率为每10万人口9.5起撞车事故，其中10.3%涉及酒精。在新冠疫情居家令发布后，涉及酒精的撞车事故百分比升至12.7%。总体而言，加利福尼亚州的撞车率显著下降（每10万人口减少4.6起；95%置信区间：-5.3，-3.9），所有考察的亚组均如此，降幅最大的是最轻微的撞车事故。然而，涉及酒精的撞车事故比例绝对增加了2.3%（每10万人口增加0.02起；95%置信区间：0.02，0.03）。
加利福尼亚州实施新冠疫情居家令与总体撞车率大幅下降有关。虽然撞车事故已恢复到疫情前水平，但涉及酒精的撞车事故仍然居高不下。居家令的实施显著增加了酒精影响下的驾驶行为，且一直居高不下。
