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酒精遵守情况检查和未成年人涉酒事故:2006 年至 2016 年南卡罗来纳州全州执法计划评估。

Alcohol Compliance Checks and Underage Alcohol-Involved Crashes: Evaluation of a Statewide Enforcement Program in South Carolina from 2006 to 2016.

机构信息

From the, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, (MDG), Columbia, South Carolina.

CHESS Health Solutions, (RH), High Point, North Carolina.

出版信息

Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2021 Jan;45(1):242-250. doi: 10.1111/acer.14507. Epub 2020 Dec 18.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

This research evaluated the South Carolina Alcohol Enforcement Team impact for reducing retail alcohol access to underage persons to decrease drinking and driving crashes among that population.

METHODS

The natural research experiment used interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses of drinking and driving crashes involving under 21-year-old drivers from July 2006 through December 2016 (126-month period = 4,782 Driving Under Influence [DUI] crashes for under 21-year-old drivers, µ = 38 crashes per month). Additional data analyzed included the monthly total number of retail compliance checks (total during 126-month period = 64,954 compliance checks completed, µ = 515.5 checks per month), the average percentage of underage alcohol purchases (total completed during 126-month period = 8,814 purchases, µ = 70 purchases per month), and a calculated measure of the percent of the population under 21 years old exposed to compliance checks each month. We used drinking and driving crashes for 21-year-old and over drivers as a control time series (total number over a 126-month period = 52,180 DUI crashes for 21 and older drivers, µ = 414.1 crashes per month).

RESULTS

The results show a decline in drinking and driving crashes for drivers under 21 when compliance checks increase, and when compliance checks decline, traffic crashes increase. Stable Alcohol Enforcement Team implementation over 78 months produced an overall 18 to 29% decline in such crashes. A visual examination of the crash time series demonstrated that under-21-age-driver crashes declined during the first wave of implementation and increased following a lag when enforcement declined, which provided additional empirical support for a South Carolina Alcohol Enforcement Team impact on retail alcohol availability. An ITS analysis of the prestable period compared to the stable period was statistically significant (T = -3.78, p < 0.001). A cross-check of these results using single-vehicle nighttime crashes using identical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models was also statistically significant (T = -8.18, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This longitudinal study provides strong evidence of sustained reductions in alcohol availability to underage youth can subsequently reduce alcohol-related traffic crashes. Reductions found in this study continued over several years, considerably longer than any previous equivalent research has shown.

摘要

目的

本研究评估了南卡罗来纳州酒精执法队减少未成年人群体零售酒品获取途径的影响,以降低该人群的酒后驾车撞车事故发生率。

方法

本自然研究实验采用中断时间序列(ITS)分析方法,研究了 2006 年 7 月至 2016 年 12 月期间涉及 21 岁以下司机的酒后驾车撞车事故(126 个月期间共发生 4782 起 21 岁以下司机的酒后驾车撞车事故,µ=38 起/月)。此外还分析了每月零售合规检查的总数(126 个月期间共完成 64954 次合规检查,µ=515.5 次/月)、未成年饮酒购买的平均百分比(126 个月期间共完成 8814 次购买,µ=70 次/月)以及每月接触合规检查的 21 岁以下人口的计算测量值。我们将 21 岁及以上司机的酒后驾车撞车事故用作控制时间序列(126 个月期间共发生 52180 起 21 岁及以上司机的酒后驾车撞车事故,µ=414.1 起/月)。

结果

结果表明,当合规检查增加时,21 岁以下司机的酒后驾车撞车事故减少,而当合规检查减少时,交通撞车事故增加。78 多个月的稳定酒精执法队实施使此类撞车事故总体减少了 18%至 29%。对撞车时间序列的直观检查表明,21 岁以下年龄司机的撞车事故在实施的第一波中减少,而在执法减少后的滞后期间增加,这为南卡罗来纳州酒精执法队对零售酒品供应的影响提供了额外的实证支持。对稳定期前的预稳定期进行的 ITS 分析具有统计学意义(T=-3.78,p<0.001)。使用相同的自回归综合移动平均模型对这些结果进行单车辆夜间撞车事故的交叉检查也具有统计学意义(T=-8.18,p<0.001)。

结论

这项纵向研究提供了强有力的证据,表明持续减少未成年人群体获得酒精的途径随后可以减少与酒精相关的交通撞车事故。本研究中发现的减少在几年内持续存在,远远超过以往任何同等研究的时间跨度。

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