Rahimi Jaber, Mutua John Yumbya, Notenbaert An M O, Marshall Karen, Butterbach-Bahl Klaus
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-P., Germany.
Tropical Forages Program, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya.
Nat Food. 2021 Feb;2(2):88-96. doi: 10.1038/s43016-021-00226-8. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
Climate change-induced increases in temperature and humidity are predicted to impact East African food systems, but the extent to which heat stress negatively affects livestock production in this region is poorly understood. Here we use ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that the frequency of 'Severe/Danger' heat events for dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats, swine and poultry significantly increased from 1981 to 2010. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 by the coordinated regional-climate downscaling experiment for Africa (CORDEX-AFRICA)), we show that the frequency of dangerous heat-stress conditions and the average number of consecutive days with heat stress events will significantly increase, particularly for swine and poultry. Our assessment suggests that 4-19% of livestock production occurs in areas where dangerous heat stress events are likely to increase in frequency from 2071 to 2100. With demand for animal products predicted to grow in East Africa, production-specific heat-stress mitigation measures and breeding programmes for increasing heat tolerance are urgently needed for future livestock sector productivity-and future food security-in East Africa.
预计气候变化导致的温度和湿度上升将影响东非的粮食系统，但热应激对该地区牲畜生产产生负面影响的程度却鲜为人知。在此，我们使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ERA-Interim）的再分析数据表明，1981年至2010年期间，奶牛、肉牛、绵羊、山羊、猪和家禽遭遇“严重/危险”热事件的频率显著增加。利用2021年至2050年以及2071年至2100年的气候变化预测多模型集合（在非洲区域气候降尺度协调实验（CORDEX-AFRICA）的代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5情景下），我们发现危险热应激状况的频率以及热应激事件连续出现的平均天数将显著增加，特别是对猪和家禽而言。我们的评估表明，到2071年至2100年，4%至19%的牲畜生产将发生在危险热应激事件频率可能增加的地区。鉴于预计东非对动物产品的需求将会增长，为提高东非未来畜牧业的生产力及未来的粮食安全，迫切需要针对特定生产的热应激缓解措施以及提高耐热性的育种计划。
