Sheng Hantian, Dai Xiaomian, He Canfei
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, China.
Appl Geogr. 2023 Jul;156:102978. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102978. Epub 2023 Apr 26.
The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic has a prolonged impact on global economic activities. In recent years, many scholars have been motivated to estimate the effects of Covid-19 shock on global foreign direct investment (FDI). However, existing studies have not paid enough attention to the spillover effects caused by the epidemic. Although few academic works have explored the geographic-neighboring spillover effects of epidemic shock on global investment, we further extent the understanding of the spillover effects in an economic network. On the basis of country-month greenfield FDI panels, we construct a spatial Durbin model, and figure out that Covid-19 shock may have positive FDI spillover effects in an economic network via global FDI transfers. Furthermore, we find that such spillovers are greatly conditioned by country-level network position and institutional ties among nations. Our research suggests that global FDI transfers may partly offset economic-adverse effects of the Covid-19 shock. While global countries, especially those in the Global South, should be more closely embedded in the global investment network in such an uncertain environment.
新冠疫情的爆发对全球经济活动产生了持久影响。近年来，许多学者致力于评估新冠疫情冲击对全球外国直接投资（FDI）的影响。然而，现有研究对疫情引发的溢出效应关注不足。尽管很少有学术著作探讨疫情冲击对全球投资的地理邻接溢出效应，但我们进一步拓展了在经济网络中对溢出效应的理解。基于国家月度绿地FDI面板，我们构建了一个空间杜宾模型，并发现新冠疫情冲击可能通过全球FDI转移在经济网络中产生正向的FDI溢出效应。此外，我们发现这种溢出效应在很大程度上受国家层面的网络地位和国家间制度联系的制约。我们的研究表明，全球FDI转移可能部分抵消新冠疫情冲击的经济负面影响。而全球各国，尤其是全球南方国家，在这种不确定的环境中应更紧密地融入全球投资网络。
