Agnolucci Paolo, Rapti Chrysanthi, Alexander Peter, De Lipsis Vincenzo, Holland Robert A, Eigenbrod Felix, Ekins Paul
Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Nat Food. 2020 Sep;1(9):562-571. doi: 10.1038/s43016-020-00148-x. Epub 2020 Sep 15.
Understanding the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on crop yields is a vital step in developing policy and management options to feed the world. As most existing studies are limited to a few staple crops, we implemented global statistical models to examine the influence of weather and management practices on the yields of 18 crops, accounting for 70% of crop production by area and 65% by calorific intake. Focusing on the impact of temperature, we found considerable heterogeneity in the responses of yields across crops and countries. Irrigation was found to alleviate negative implications from temperature increases. Countries where increasing temperature causes the most negative impacts are typically the most food insecure, with the lowest calorific food supply and average crop yield. International action must be coordinated to raise yields in these countries through improvement and modernization of agricultural practices to counteract future adverse impacts of climate change.
了解温度和降水变化对作物产量的影响是制定养活世界的政策和管理方案的关键一步。由于大多数现有研究仅限于少数几种主要作物，我们实施了全球统计模型，以研究天气和管理措施对18种作物产量的影响，这些作物占全球作物种植面积的70%和热量摄入量的65%。聚焦于温度的影响，我们发现不同作物和国家的产量响应存在很大差异。研究发现灌溉可减轻气温上升带来的负面影响。气温上升造成负面影响最大的国家通常是粮食最不安全的国家，其热量食物供应和平均作物产量最低。必须协调国际行动，通过改进和实现农业实践现代化来提高这些国家的产量，以应对气候变化未来的不利影响。
