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基于 2020-2022 年 COVID-19 数据开发未来大流行应用预测模型。

Developing forecasting model for future pandemic applications based on COVID-19 data 2020-2022.

机构信息

Faculty of Ocean Engineering Technology and Informatics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.

Special Interest Group on Applied Informatics and Intelligent Applications (AINIA) Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 May 12;18(5):e0285407. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285407. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Improving forecasting particularly time series forecasting accuracy, efficiency and precisely become crucial for the authorities to forecast, monitor, and prevent the COVID-19 cases so that its spread can be controlled more effectively. However, the results obtained from prediction models are inaccurate, imprecise as well as inefficient due to linear and non-linear patterns exist in the data set, respectively. Therefore, to produce more accurate and efficient COVID-19 prediction value that is closer to the true COVID-19 value, a hybrid approach has been implemented. Thus, aims of this study is (1) to propose a hybrid ARIMA-SVM model to produce better forecasting results. (2) to investigate in terms of the performance of the proposed models and percentage improvement against ARIMA and SVM models. statistical measurements such as MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE then conducted to verify that the proposed models are better than ARIMA and SVM models. Empirical results with three real datasets of well-known cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia show that, compared to the ARIMA and SVM models, the proposed model generates the smallest MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE values for the training and testing datasets, means that the predicted value from the proposed model is closer to the actual value. These results prove that the proposed model can generate estimated values more accurately and efficiently. As compared to ARIMA and SVM, our proposed models perform much better in terms of error reduction percentages for all datasets. This is demonstrated by the maximum scores of 73.12%, 74.6%, 90.38%, and 68.99% in the MAE, MAPE, MSE, and RMSE, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model can be the best and effective way to improve prediction performance with a higher level of accuracy and efficiency in predicting cases of COVID-19.

摘要

提高预测,特别是时间序列预测的准确性、效率和精度,对于当局预测、监测和预防 COVID-19 病例至关重要,以便更有效地控制其传播。然而,由于数据集存在线性和非线性模式,预测模型的结果分别不准确、不精确且效率低下。因此,为了产生更准确和高效的 COVID-19 预测值,更接近真实的 COVID-19 值,采用了混合方法。因此,本研究的目的是:(1)提出一种混合 ARIMA-SVM 模型以产生更好的预测结果。(2)研究所提出模型的性能以及与 ARIMA 和 SVM 模型相比的百分比提高。然后进行了统计测量,如 MSE、RMSE、MAE 和 MAPE,以验证所提出的模型优于 ARIMA 和 SVM 模型。使用马来西亚三个著名 COVID-19 病例的真实数据集的实证结果表明,与 ARIMA 和 SVM 模型相比,所提出的模型为训练和测试数据集生成了最小的 MSE、RMSE、MAE 和 MAPE 值,这意味着所提出的模型的预测值更接近实际值。这些结果证明了所提出的模型可以更准确和高效地生成估计值。与 ARIMA 和 SVM 相比,我们提出的模型在所有数据集的误差减少百分比方面表现更好。这在 MAE、MAPE、MSE 和 RMSE 方面的最高分数分别为 73.12%、74.6%、90.38%和 68.99%中得到了证明。因此,所提出的模型可以是提高预测性能的最佳和有效方法,具有更高的准确性和效率水平,可以预测 COVID-19 病例。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2f97/10180663/b631cb3e8745/pone.0285407.g001.jpg

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