California State University-Long Beach, Long Beach, California, USA.
Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
J Anim Ecol. 2023 Jul;92(7):1404-1415. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13942. Epub 2023 May 15.
Extreme climatic events may influence individual-level variability in phenotypes, survival and reproduction, and thereby drive the pace of evolution. Climate models predict increases in the frequency of intense hurricanes, but no study has measured their impact on individual life courses within animal populations. We used 45 years of demographic data of rhesus macaques to quantify the influence of major hurricanes on reproductive life courses using multiple metrics of dynamic heterogeneity accounting for life course variability and life-history trait variances. To reduce intraspecific competition, individuals may explore new reproductive stages during years of major hurricanes, resulting in higher temporal variation in reproductive trajectories. Alternatively, individuals may opt for a single optimal life-history strategy due to trade-offs between survival and reproduction. Our results show that heterogeneity in reproductive life courses increased by 4% during years of major hurricanes, despite a 2% reduction in the asymptotic growth rate due to an average decrease in mean fertility and survival by that is, shortened life courses and reduced reproductive output. In agreement with this, the population is expected to achieve stable population dynamics faster after being perturbed by a hurricane ( ; 95% CI: 1.488, 1.538), relative to ordinary years . Our work suggests that natural disasters force individuals into new demographic roles to potentially reduce competition during unfavourable environments where mean reproduction and survival are compromised. Variance in lifetime reproductive success and longevity are differently affected by hurricanes, and such variability is mostly driven by survival.
极端气候事件可能会影响个体表型、生存和繁殖的变异性,从而推动进化的速度。气候模型预测强烈飓风的频率会增加,但没有研究测量过它们对动物种群个体生命历程的影响。我们使用恒河猴 45 年的人口统计数据,使用多种动态异质性指标来量化主要飓风对生殖生命历程的影响,这些指标考虑了生命历程变异性和生活史特征变异性。为了减少种内竞争,个体可能会在主要飓风年份探索新的生殖阶段,从而导致生殖轨迹的时间变化增加。或者,由于生存和繁殖之间的权衡,个体可能会选择单一的最佳生活史策略。我们的研究结果表明,尽管由于平均生育率和存活率下降导致渐近增长率降低了 2%,即缩短了生命历程和减少了生殖产出,但主要飓风年份生殖生命历程的异质性增加了 4%。与此一致的是,与普通年份相比,飓风干扰后,人口有望更快地实现稳定的种群动态( ;95%CI:1.488,1.538)。我们的工作表明,自然灾害迫使个体承担新的人口角色,以在平均繁殖和生存受到损害的不利环境中潜在减少竞争。终生生殖成功率和寿命的方差受到飓风的不同影响,这种变异性主要由生存驱动。