Epstein Adrienne, Treleaven Emily, Ghimire Dirgha, Diamond-Smith Nadia
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco.
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
Popul Environ. 2022 Dec;44(3-4):145-167. doi: 10.1007/s11111-022-00406-z. Epub 2022 Sep 28.
Although the relationship between drought - a dimension of climate change - and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research has largely focused on out-migration and has not considered climate factors at the migrant destination. However, drought may impact not only out-migration, but also return migration, particularly in settings where temporary labor migration and agricultural reliance are common. Thus, considering drought conditions at origin and destinations is necessary to specify the effects of climate on migrant-sending populations. Using detailed data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a household panel study in a migrant-sending area in Nepal, we analyze the effect of drought at the neighborhood level on individual-level out-migration and drought at the origin district on return migration among adults from 2011 to 2017, assessing these associations among males and females separately. In mixed-effect discrete-time regressions, we find that neighborhood drought is positively associated with out-migration and return migration, both internally and internationally among males. Among females, drought is positively associated with internal out-migration and return migration, but not international migrations. We did not find an association between drought at the origin and return migration independent of drought status at the destination. Taken together, these findings contribute to our understanding of the complexity of the impacts of precipitation anomalies on population movement over time.
尽管干旱（气候变化的一个维度）与移民之间的关系已在许多情况下得到探讨，但先前的研究主要集中在迁出移民方面，并未考虑移民目的地的气候因素。然而，干旱不仅可能影响迁出移民，还可能影响返乡移民，特别是在临时劳务移民和农业依赖普遍的地区。因此，考虑原籍地和目的地的干旱状况对于明确气候对移民输出人口的影响是必要的。利用尼泊尔一个移民输出地区的家庭面板研究——奇旺山谷家庭研究的详细数据，我们分析了2011年至2017年期间邻里层面的干旱对个人层面迁出移民的影响，以及原籍地区的干旱对成年人返乡移民的影响，并分别评估了男性和女性之间的这些关联。在混合效应离散时间回归中，我们发现邻里干旱与男性在国内和国际的迁出移民及返乡移民呈正相关。在女性中，干旱与国内迁出移民和返乡移民呈正相关，但与国际移民无关。我们没有发现原籍地的干旱与不考虑目的地干旱状况的返乡移民之间存在关联。综上所述，这些发现有助于我们理解降水异常对人口随时间流动影响的复杂性。
