Williams Nathalie E, Gray Clark
Department of Sociology and Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington.
Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Popul Environ. 2020 Mar;41(3):286-305. doi: 10.1007/s11111-019-00334-5. Epub 2019 Dec 13.
Research shows that environmental shocks can influence migration. However, studies vary widely in the shocks and type of migration measured, the context, and the strength and direction of environmental effects. In addition, existing theories provide opposing predictions for this relationship. There is a clear need for further theoretical development in the climate-migration literature. This study, in rural Nepal, examines four types of weather shocks, over various time frames, on four types of migration. Results suggest that the most substantial influence of weather shocks is not in a wholesale increase or decrease in migration. Instead, weather shocks are related to changes in the of migration used, resulting in less long-term and more short-term migrations in the population. We use the Ready-Willing-and-Able perspective to make sense of these patterns.
研究表明，环境冲击会影响移民。然而，各项研究在衡量的冲击和移民类型、背景以及环境影响的强度和方向上差异很大。此外，现有理论对这种关系给出了相反的预测。气候 - 移民文献显然需要进一步的理论发展。本研究在尼泊尔农村地区，考察了不同时间框架内四种天气冲击对四种移民类型的影响。结果表明，天气冲击的最大影响并非是移民的全面增加或减少。相反，天气冲击与所采用的移民类型变化有关，导致人口中短期移民增多，长期移民减少。我们运用“有意愿且有能力”的视角来理解这些模式。
