School of City & Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States.
University of Michigan Institute for Social Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Jun 6;57(22):8245-8255. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c09588. Epub 2023 May 23.
The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.
最近，电网故障事件与极端温度同时发生，使极端天气事件对人口健康的风险更加复杂。在这里，我们结合了美国三个大城市历史热浪事件中的模拟热暴露数据，以评估在同时发生电网故障事件的情况下，与热相关的死亡率和发病率变化的程度。我们开发了一种新的方法来估计个人经历的温度，以近似个人热暴露如何在每小时的基础上发生变化，同时考虑到室外和建筑内部的暴露。我们发现，多天的停电事件与热浪条件同时发生，会使所有三个城市与热相关的死亡率估计增加一倍以上，并使当前和未来时期城市总人口的 3%（亚特兰大）至 50%以上（凤凰城）需要医疗关注。我们的研究结果强调了增强电网弹性的必要性，并支持更广泛地使用树冠和高反照率屋顶材料来减轻复合气候和基础设施故障事件期间的热暴露。
