Department of Biology, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, Hilo, HI, United States of America.
Tropical Conservation Biology and Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, Hilo, HI, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2023 Jun 2;18(6):e0286136. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286136. eCollection 2023.
Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are increasing, and in Hawai'i, rates of ocean warming are projected to double by the end of the 21st century. However, current nearshore warming trends and their possible impacts on intertidal communities are not well understood. This study represents the first investigation into the possible effects of rising SST on intertidal algal and invertebrate communities across the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). By utilizing citizen-science data coupled with high-resolution, daily SST satellite measurements from 12 intertidal sites across the MHI from 2004-2019, the response of intertidal algal and invertebrate abundance and community diversity to changes in SST was investigated across multiple spatial scales. Results show high rates of SST warming (0.40°C Decade-1) over this study's timeframe, similar to predicted rates of warming for Hawai'i by the end of the 21st century. Changes in abundance and diversity in response to SST were variable among intertidal sites, but differences in antecedent SST among intertidal sites were significantly associated with community dissimilarity. In addition, a statistically significant positive relationship was found between SST and Simpson's diversity index, and a significant relationship was also found between SST and the abundance of six dominant taxa. For five of these six dominant taxa, antecedent SSTs over the 6-12 months preceding sampling were the most influential for describing changes to abundance. The increase in community diversity in response to higher SSTs was best explained by temperatures in the 10 months preceding sampling, and the resultant decreased abundance of dominant turf algae. These results highlight rapidly warming nearshore SSTs in Hawai'i and the longer-term effects of antecedent SSTs as significant drivers of change within Hawaiian intertidal communities. Therefore, we suggest that future research and management should consider the possibility of lagging effects of antecedent SST on intertidal communities in Hawai'i and elsewhere.
全球海表温度（SST）正在升高，预计到 21 世纪末，夏威夷的海洋升温速度将翻一番。然而，目前近岸地区的变暖趋势及其对潮间带社区的可能影响尚未得到很好的理解。本研究首次调查了不断上升的 SST 对整个夏威夷群岛（MHI）潮间带藻类和无脊椎动物群落可能产生的影响。通过利用公民科学数据和 12 个 MHI 潮间带站点的高分辨率、每日 SST 卫星测量数据（2004-2019 年），本研究调查了 SST 变化对潮间带藻类和无脊椎动物丰度和群落多样性的多空间尺度响应。结果表明，在本研究期间，SST 变暖速度很高（0.40°C 十年-1），与 21 世纪末夏威夷的变暖预测速度相似。对 SST 的响应中丰度和多样性的变化在各潮间带站点之间存在差异，但潮间带站点之间的前期 SST 差异与群落差异显著相关。此外，SST 与辛普森多样性指数之间存在显著正相关关系，SST 与六个优势分类群的丰度之间也存在显著关系。在这六个优势分类群中，有五个在采样前的 6-12 个月内的前期 SST 对描述丰度变化的影响最大。群落多样性对较高 SST 的响应增加可以用采样前 10 个月的温度来最好地解释，以及优势藻席藻类的丰度减少。这些结果突显了夏威夷近岸 SST 的快速变暖，以及前期 SST 作为夏威夷潮间带群落变化的重要驱动因素的长期影响。因此，我们建议未来的研究和管理应考虑夏威夷和其他地区潮间带群落中前期 SST 滞后效应的可能性。
