1 National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health (HPRU ECH) , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
2 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, World Bank , Washington, DC, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2018 Sep;126(9):97007. doi: 10.1289/EHP2916.
In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.
We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.
We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.
We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.
Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.
2016 年，[X]岁儿童中有 23%（1.55 亿）发育迟缓。全球层面的建模研究一致表明，气候变化对粮食生产的影响可能会阻碍减少营养不良的进展。
我们采用了一种新的视角，通过评估气候变化对两个相互作用的社会经济驱动因素的影响来评估其如何影响儿童发育迟缓：最贫困的 20%人口的收入（由于气候变化对作物生产、健康、劳动生产力和灾害的影响）和粮食价格。
我们开发了一种统计模型，以在低和高气候变化情景下结合 44 个国家的贫困和繁荣情景，预测 2030 年[X]岁儿童中度和重度发育迟缓的情况。
我们估计，如果没有气候变化，在贫困情景下，2030 年将有 1.10 亿[X]岁儿童发育迟缓，而在繁荣情景下，这一数字为 8300 万。气候变化导致发育迟缓的估计范围从繁荣/低气候变化情景下的 57 万到贫困/高气候变化情景下的[Formula: see text]。在这两种社会经济情景下，气候变化对发育迟缓的影响在农村地区大于城市地区。在收入较低、食品价格相对较高的国家，我们预计价格上涨将导致发育迟缓增加，而在收入较高、食品价格相对较低的国家，价格上涨将导致发育迟缓减少。这些发现表明，为农民提供体面收入并实现高就业和生活工资的食品价格将减少营养不良和对气候变化的脆弱性。
将重点从粮食生产转移到收入和食品价格之间的相互作用上提供了新的见解。关注健康的未来不仅应考虑食品的可获得性、可及性和质量，还应考虑生产这些食品的人的收入。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.
