Demir Mahir, Aslan Ibrahim H, Lenhart Suzanne
Department of Mathematics, Giresun University, Giresun, 28200 Turkey.
Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
Theor Ecol. 2023;16(2):117-129. doi: 10.1007/s12080-023-00557-1. Epub 2023 Apr 25.
The ongoing pandemic disease COVID‑19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID‑19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri. Our models and their parameter estimations show social distancing can reduce the transmission of COVID‑19 by 60% to 90%. Thus, obeying the movement restriction rules is crucial in reducing the magnitude of the outbreak waves. This study also estimates the percentage of people who were not social distancing ranges between 10% and 18% in these states. Our analysis shows the management restrictions taken by these states do not slow the disease progression enough to contain the outbreak.
持续的新冠疫情已在全球范围内造成社会和经济混乱。由于许多国家都在致力于研发疫苗，有害的第二波和第三波新冠疫情已在许多国家出现。为了研究美国传播率的变化以及社交距离措施的效果，我们利用加利福尼亚州、得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、伊利诺伊州、路易斯安那州、密歇根州和密苏里州这些州的确诊病例和死亡数据，建立了一个常微分方程组。我们的模型及其参数估计表明，社交距离措施可将新冠病毒的传播减少60%至90%。因此，遵守行动限制规则对于降低疫情爆发的规模至关重要。本研究还估计，在这些州中，未保持社交距离的人群比例在10%至18%之间。我们的分析表明，这些州采取的管理限制措施在减缓疾病进展以控制疫情方面力度不够。
