Crop Production and Security in Ningjin County of the North China Plain.

Stable growth in grain production is a critical challenge to ensure food security in North China Plain (NCP), an area dominated by smallholder farming. Food production and security of NCP largely depend on how smallholders farm their land. This study took Ningjin County of the NCP as an example to describe the characteristics of crop planting structure and the changes in crop production based on household surveys, statistics, various documents, and literature by descriptive statistics, calculation of crop self-sufficiency, and curve fitting, and aimed to reveal crop security and the influencing factors of crop production at the household level. The results were as follows: (1) Wheat and maize sown area accounted for 61.69% and 47.96% of the total sown area of crops during 2000-2020, increasing at a rate of 3.42% and 5.93%, respectively. Their planted areas increased from 27.52% and 15.54% in 2000 to 47.82% and 44.75% in 2020, respectively. (2) The self-sufficiency rate of maize showed a significant upward trend and reached its peak in 2019. the self-sufficiency rate of wheat also showed an increasing trend, from 192.87% to 617.37%, which indicates that wheat and maize can meet food self-sufficiency and the per capita grain yield is in a safe state. (3) The trends on wheat yield and fertilizer initially grew, then decreased, closely resembling an inverted "U", while the maize yield showed a pattern of increasing first and then basically remaining stable, similar to an "S" shape. A turning point for fertilizer use (550 kg/ha) was identified, indicating the limits of fertilizer use to increase yield. The national agricultural production and environmental protection policies, continuous improvement of crop varieties, as well as the farmers' traditional practices have significant impacts on crop production. This study will enhance management practices for improved yield, which can support the integrated management of agricultural production in intensive agricultural areas.