预测Ⅰ-Ⅲ期老年胃癌患者癌症特异性生存的预后模型。
Prognostic model for the prediction of cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with stage I-III gastric cancer.
作者信息
Yu Ke-Xun, Li Jing, Wang Hui-Zhen, Zhang Chao-Yang, Ma Meng-Di, Xiao Lei, Yuan Wei-Jie, Li Yong-Xiang
机构信息
Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University Hefei, Anhui, China.
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University Changsha, Hunan, China.
出版信息
Am J Transl Res. 2023 May 15;15(5):3188-3202. eCollection 2023.
Elderly patients with gastric cancer (GC) exhibit unique physiological conditions and population characteristics. However, no efficient predictive tools have been developed for this patient subgroup. We extracted data on elderly patients diagnosed with stage I-III GC between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and applied Cox regression analysis to examine factors associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS). A prognostic model was developed and validated to predict CSS. We assessed the performance of the prognostic model and stratified patients based on their prognostic scores. Notably, 11 independent prognostic factors, including age, race, grade, the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, T-stage, N-stage, operation, tumor size, regional nodes, radiation, and chemotherapy, associated with CSS were identified using multivariate Cox regression. A nomogram was constructed based on these predictors. The C-index score of the nomogram was 0.802 (95% (confidence interval) [CI]: 0.7939-0.8114), which is superior to the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging prediction ability in the training cohort (C-index: 0.589; 95% CI: 0.5780-0.6017). Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curve, the predicted value of the nomogram demonstrated a satisfactory accuracy with the actual observation value. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram had a more ideal clinical net benefit than TNM staging. Survival analysis of the different risk groups confirmed the noteworthy clinical and statistical utility of the nomogram in prognosis stratification. This retrospective study reports the successful creation and validation of a nomogram for predicting CSS at 1-, 3- and 5-years in elderly patients with stage I-III GC. This nomogram critically guides personalized prognostic assessments and may contribute to clinical decision-making and consultation for postoperative survival.
老年胃癌(GC)患者呈现出独特的生理状况和人群特征。然而,尚未针对该患者亚组开发出有效的预测工具。我们从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中提取了2010年至2015年间诊断为I - III期GC的老年患者的数据,并应用Cox回归分析来检查与癌症特异性生存(CSS)相关的因素。开发并验证了一个预后模型以预测CSS。我们评估了预后模型的性能,并根据患者的预后评分进行分层。值得注意的是,使用多变量Cox回归确定了11个与CSS相关的独立预后因素,包括年龄、种族、分级、肿瘤 - 淋巴结 - 转移(TNM)分期、T分期、N分期、手术、肿瘤大小、区域淋巴结、放疗和化疗。基于这些预测因素构建了列线图。列线图的C指数评分为0.802(95%置信区间[CI]:0.7939 - 0.8114),在训练队列中优于美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)TNM分期的预测能力(C指数:0.589;95% CI:0.5780 - 0.6017)。基于受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和校准曲线,列线图的预测值与实际观察值显示出令人满意的准确性。此外,决策曲线分析(DCA)表明列线图比TNM分期具有更理想的临床净效益。不同风险组的生存分析证实了列线图在预后分层中具有显著的临床和统计学效用。这项回顾性研究报告了成功创建并验证了一个用于预测I - III期老年GC患者1年、3年和5年CSS的列线图。该列线图对个性化预后评估具有重要指导意义,并可能有助于术后生存的临床决策和咨询。
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