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具有显性和隐性感染期的退化反应扩散宿主-病原体模型的动力学与分布

Dynamics and profiles of a degenerated reaction-diffusion host-pathogen model with apparent and inapparent infection period.

作者信息

Wang Jinliang, Lu Han

机构信息

Engineering Research Center of Agricultural Microbiology Technology, Ministry of Education & Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration and Resource Utilization for Cold Region & School of Mathematical Science, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, PR China.

出版信息

Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul. 2023 Oct;125:107318. doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2023.107318. Epub 2023 May 27.

Abstract

Inapparent infection plays an important role in the disease spread, which is an infection by a pathogen that causes few or no signs or symptoms of infection in the host. Many pathogens, including HIV, typhoid fever, and coronaviruses such as COVID-19 spread in their host populations through inapparent infection. In this paper, we formulated a degenerated reaction-diffusion host-pathogen model with multiple infection period. We split the infectious individuals into two distinct classes: apparent infectious individuals and inapparent infectious individuals, coming from exposed individuals with a ratio of and , respectively. Some preliminary results and threshold-type results are achieved by detailed mathematical analysis. We also investigate the asymptotic profiles of the positive steady state (PSS) when the diffusion rate of susceptible individuals approaches zero or infinity. When all parameters are all constants, the global attractivity of the constant endemic equilibrium is established. It is verified by numerical simulations that spatial heterogeneity of the transmission rates can enhance the intensity of an epidemic. Especially, the transmission rate of inapparent infectious individuals significantly increases the risk of disease transmission, compared to that of apparent infectious individuals and pathogens in the environment, and we should pay special attentions to how to regulate the inapparent infectious individuals for disease control and prevention, which is consistent with the result on the sensitive analysis to the transmission rates through the normalized forward sensitivity index. We also find that disinfection of the infected environment is an important way to prevent and eliminate the risk of environmental transmission.

摘要

隐性感染在疾病传播中起着重要作用,它是由病原体引起的一种感染,在宿主中几乎不引起或不引起感染的体征或症状。许多病原体,包括艾滋病毒、伤寒以及如新冠病毒这样的冠状病毒,都是通过隐性感染在其宿主群体中传播的。在本文中,我们构建了一个具有多个感染期的退化反应扩散宿主 - 病原体模型。我们将感染个体分为两个不同的类别:显性感染个体和隐性感染个体,它们分别来自暴露个体,比例分别为 和 。通过详细的数学分析得到了一些初步结果和阈值型结果。我们还研究了易感个体扩散率趋近于零或无穷大时正稳态(PSS)的渐近分布。当所有参数均为常数时,建立了常数地方病平衡点的全局吸引性。数值模拟验证了传播率的空间异质性可以增强疫情的强度。特别是,与显性感染个体和环境中的病原体相比,隐性感染个体的传播率显著增加了疾病传播的风险,并且我们应该特别关注如何针对疾病控制和预防来调控隐性感染个体,这与通过归一化正向灵敏度指数对传播率进行敏感性分析的结果一致。我们还发现对受感染环境进行消毒是预防和消除环境传播风险的重要途径。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e140/10219677/682b0ec2e6c0/gr1_lrg.jpg

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