Centre for Translational Immunology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department F.-A. Forel for Aquatic and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 12;13(1):9514. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-35452-6.
A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.
土地利用变化的一个主要权衡是传染病风险增加的可能性，例如通过影响病媒生命周期。评估土地利用转变对公共卫生的影响需要将土地利用与病媒生态学联系起来的空间详细建模。在这里，我们通过其对当地小气候的影响来估计油棕种植对登革热媒介白纹伊蚊生命周期完成次数的影响。我们将最近开发的机制物候模型应用于一个细尺度（50 米分辨率）的小气候数据集，其中包括每日温度、降雨量和蒸发量。该综合模型的结果表明，从低地雨林向种植园的转变使白纹伊蚊的发育适宜性增加了 10.8%，随着油棕的生长到成熟，这种适宜性适度降低到 4.7%。预计砍伐森林后，典型的种植园种植-成熟-清理-再种植周期将产生高发育适宜性的脉冲。我们的研究结果强调了需要探索可持续的土地利用情景，以解决农业和人类健康目标之间的冲突。
