Merkenschlager Christian, Bangelesa Freddy, Paeth Heiko, Hertig Elke
Regional Climate Change and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg, Universitätsstr. 2, 86159 Augsburg, Germany.
Institute of Geography and Geology, Universtiy of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2025 Apr 25;974:179202. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179202. Epub 2025 Mar 26.
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the world's most invasive species and is responsible for the transmission of several vector-borne diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, and Zika. Aedes albopictus has been established in southern Europe since the 1990s and has been spreading to other regions in recent years. The present study examines changes in the habitat suitability of Aedes albopictus over the period 2000-2020 using a multi-model ensemble (MME) of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models. An initial set of 38 climatic and 14 land-use predictors was considered for model setup. The model was built using Aedes albopictus distribution data for 2020. We included 19 bioclimatic variables, absolute humidity, and 18 extreme climate variables which are tailored to species specific thresholds based on expert knowledge. By means of statistical methods, predictor selection was performed. To assign changes to climate or land-use, we ran all habitat suitability models on varying climate with constant and varying land-use. Differences between both approaches indicate causes of change. Land-use changes are an important factor until 2015, contributing at least as much as climate change to changes in the habitat suitability area of Aedes albopictus (HSA). In the following years, changes in the HSA are mainly shaped by climate change. In 2020, the MME shows an average 4.5 % increase in HSA compared to 2000, with decreasing habitat suitability in the south and increasing suitability in the north. Land use change accounts for 16-51 % of HSA change, but only 3.3 % of land use change is spatially consistent across the MME. In contrast, changes in the HSA due to climate change has a spatial consistency of 54.2 % across the MME. The overall increase in HSA between 2000 and 2020 also increases the risk of vector-borne disease infections, but land-use changes can counteract some of the climate-induced changes.
亚洲虎蚊，即白纹伊蚊，是世界上最具入侵性的物种之一，它传播包括基孔肯雅热、登革热和寨卡病毒病在内的多种病媒传播疾病。自20世纪90年代以来，白纹伊蚊已在南欧定居，并于近年来向其他地区扩散。本研究使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型的多模型集合（MME）来研究2000年至2020年期间白纹伊蚊栖息地适宜性的变化。模型设置时考虑了一组初始的38个气候预测因子和14个土地利用预测因子。该模型是利用2020年白纹伊蚊分布数据构建的。我们纳入了19个生物气候变量、绝对湿度以及18个根据专家知识针对物种特定阈值定制的极端气候变量。通过统计方法进行预测因子选择。为了确定变化是由气候还是土地利用引起的，我们在不同气候条件下、土地利用不变和变化的情况下运行了所有栖息地适宜性模型。两种方法之间的差异表明了变化的原因。直到2015年，土地利用变化都是一个重要因素，其对亚洲虎蚊栖息地适宜性区域（HSA）变化的贡献至少与气候变化相当。在随后的几年里，HSA的变化主要受气候变化影响。与2000年相比，2020年MME显示HSA平均增加了4.5%，南部栖息地适宜性降低，北部适宜性增加。土地利用变化占HSA变化的16%至51%，但在MME中只有3.3%的土地利用变化在空间上是一致的。相比之下，MME中气候变化导致的HSA变化在空间上的一致性为54.2%。2000年至2020年期间HSA的总体增加也增加了病媒传播疾病感染的风险，但土地利用变化可以抵消一些由气候引起的变化。
