长新冠：对德国经济以及医保和养老金体系的影响。
Long COVID: Costs for the German economy and health care and pension system.
机构信息
Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Adickesallee 32-34, 60322, Frankfurt, Germany.
出版信息
BMC Health Serv Res. 2023 Jun 14;23(1):641. doi: 10.1186/s12913-023-09601-6.
BACKGROUND
Patients with acute COVID-19 can develop persistent symptoms (long/post COVID-19 syndrome). This study aimed to project the economic, health care, and pension costs due to long/post-COVID-19 syndrome with new onset in Germany in 2021.
METHODS
Using secondary data, economic costs were calculated based on wage rates and the loss of gross value-added. Pension payments were determined based on the incidence, duration, and amount of disability pensions. Health care expenditure was calculated based on rehabilitation expenses.
RESULTS
The analysis estimated a production loss of 3.4 billion euros. The gross value-added loss was calculated to be 5.7 billion euros. The estimated financial burden on the health care and pension systems due to SARS-CoV-2 infection was approximately 1.7 billion euros. Approximately 0.4 percent of employees are projected to be wholly or partially withdrawn from the labor market in the medium term due to long/post-COVID with new onset in 2021.
CONCLUSION
Costs of long/post-COVID-19 syndrome with new onset in 2021 are not negligible for the German economy and health care and pension systems but may still be manageable.
背景
患有急性 COVID-19 的患者可能会出现持续的症状（长新冠/新冠后综合征）。本研究旨在预测 2021 年德国新发长新冠/新冠后综合征的经济、医疗保健和养老金成本。
方法
使用二次数据，根据工资率和总增加值损失计算经济成本。根据残疾养老金的发病率、持续时间和金额确定养老金支付。根据康复费用计算医疗保健支出。
结果
分析估计生产损失为 34 亿欧元。总增加值损失预计为 57 亿欧元。预计 2021 年由于 SARS-CoV-2 感染，医疗保健和养老金系统的财政负担约为 17 亿欧元。预计由于 2021 年新发长新冠/新冠后，约有 0.4%的员工将完全或部分退出劳动力市场。
结论
2021 年新发长新冠/新冠后综合征的成本对于德国经济以及医疗保健和养老金系统来说并不是微不足道的，但仍在可控范围内。
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