Hölzel D, Thieme C
Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 1986 Aug 1;111(31-32):1191-9. doi: 10.1055/s-2008-1068606.
As shown by model calculations skeletal scintigraphy in the follow-up of mammary carcinoma results in an expected predictive value of a positive scan in asymptomatic patients of 6.6%, assuming a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 95% and a 5-year disease-free survival rate of 55%. Divided according to clinical stages I-III, the values are 2.1% for stage I, 5.8% for stage II, and 10.7% for stage III. From a statistical and epidemiological point of view, therefore, bone scans are of questionable value in the follow-up of mammary carcinoma, at least in the favourable stages. Scientific assessment of the ever-widening range of follow-up activities is of crucial importance; for this general demand skeletal scintigraphy in mammary carcinoma is but an example.
模型计算结果表明，在乳腺癌随访中进行骨闪烁扫描时，假设敏感性为100%、特异性为95%且5年无病生存率为55%，则无症状患者扫描阳性的预期预测值为6.6%。根据临床I - III期划分，I期的值为2.1%，II期为5.8%，III期为10.7%。因此，从统计学和流行病学角度来看，骨扫描在乳腺癌随访中的价值存疑，至少在预后良好的阶段如此。对不断扩大的随访活动范围进行科学评估至关重要；乳腺癌的骨闪烁扫描只是这一普遍需求的一个例子。
