Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China.
John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Jun 27;120(26):e2218274120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2218274120. Epub 2023 Jun 20.
Heat waves and air pollution extremes exert compounding effects on human health and food security and may worsen under future climate change. On the basis of reconstructed daily O levels in China and meteorological reanalysis, we found that the interannual variability of the frequency of summertime co-occurrence of heat wave and O pollution in China is regulated mainly by a combination of springtime warming in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and Ross Sea. These sea surface temperature anomalies impose influences on precipitation, radiation, etc., to modulate the co-occurrence, which were also confirmed with coupled chemistry-climate numerical experiments. We thus built a multivariable regression model to predict co-occurrence a season in advance, and correlation coefficient could reach 0.81 ( < 0.01) for the North China Plain. Our results provide useful information for the government to take actions in advance to mitigate damage from these synergistic costressors.
热浪和空气污染极值对人类健康和粮食安全产生复合影响，并且在未来气候变化下可能会加剧。基于重建的中国每日 O 水平和气象再分析，我们发现中国夏季热浪和 O 污染同时发生的频率的年际变化主要受西太平洋、西印度洋和罗斯海春季变暖的组合调节。这些海表温度异常对降水、辐射等产生影响，从而调节同时发生的情况，这也得到了耦合化学-气候数值实验的证实。因此，我们建立了一个多元回归模型，提前一个季节预测同时发生的情况，华北平原的相关系数可达 0.81（<0.01）。我们的研究结果为政府提前采取行动减轻这些协同胁迫因素造成的损害提供了有用的信息。
