Browning Morgan, McFarland James, Bistline John, Boyd Gale, Muratori Matteo, Binsted Matthew, Harris Chioke, Mai Trieu, Blanford Geoff, Edmonds Jae, Fawcett Allen A, Kaplan Ozge, Weyant John
US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Energy Clim Chang. 2023 Dec;4:1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104.
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.
能源建模论坛（EMF）第37项关于深度脱碳和高度电气化的研究分析了一系列到本世纪中叶实现北美全经济范围二氧化碳（CO₂）净零排放的情景，探讨了影响能源供需的不同技术演变、政策和行为假设的影响。在本文中，16个建模团队报告了由此产生的排放预测、能源系统演变和经济活动情况。本文概述了该研究，记录了情景设计，为该研究即将发表的补充论文提供了路线图，并对美国2050年CO₂净零排放情景的结果进行了初步总结和比较。我们比较了不同模型和情景下的各种结果，如排放、能源使用、燃料组合演变和技术采用情况。尽管模型结构和输入假设的来源各不相同，但各模型在能源系统趋势方面达成了广泛共识，即电力部门深度脱碳，同时建筑、交通以及程度较轻的工业终端用电增加。所有模型除了利用陆地碳汇外，还部署了负排放技术（如直接空气捕获以及碳捕获与封存的生物能源）以实现CO₂净零排放。结果中出现了重要差异，表明终端使用部门之间存在不同的路径，深度电气化和电网脱碳是实现净零排放的必要但不充分条件。这些差异将在补充本研究的论文中进行探讨，以为实现净零排放的努力和未来研究需求提供参考。
