Wang Bo, Shi Han, Wang Zhaohua, Xu Shuling, Deng Nana, Qiu Yueming Lucy, Zhang Bin
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Research Center for Sustainable Development & Intelligent Decision, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
iScience. 2023 Jun 19;26(10):107177. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107177.
Pandemics such as COVID-19 threaten income growth by disrupting productive activities for households, especially those who have just escaped from poverty. We provide empirical evidence on how pandemic disproportionately threatens the rural productive livelihood based on 48 months of household production electricity consumption data. The results show that after COVID-19, the productive livelihood activities of 51.11% households who have just overcome poverty have returned to the level before poverty alleviation. Their productive livelihood activities dropped by 21.81% on average during the national COVID-19 epidemic and by 40.57% during the regional epidemic. The households with lower income, lower level of education and less labor force even suffer more. We estimate 3.74% decline in income owing to the decrease in productive activities, resulting in 5.41% of households potentially falling back into poverty. This study provides an important reference for countries being at risk of returning to poverty after pandemic.
像新冠疫情这样的大流行病，通过扰乱家庭的生产活动来威胁收入增长，尤其是那些刚刚摆脱贫困的家庭。基于48个月的家庭生产用电数据，我们提供了关于大流行病如何不成比例地威胁农村生产生计的实证证据。结果显示，新冠疫情之后，51.11%刚脱贫家庭的生产生计活动已恢复到脱贫前水平。在全国新冠疫情期间，他们的生产生计活动平均下降了21.81%，在地区疫情期间下降了40.57%。收入较低、教育水平较低且劳动力较少的家庭受影响更大。我们估计，由于生产活动减少，收入下降了3.74%，导致5.41%的家庭可能重新陷入贫困。本研究为那些在疫情后有返贫风险的国家提供了重要参考。
