Yang Hangxin, Jiang Nanziying, Li Chao, Li Jun
Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture & Forestry of the North-Western Desert Oasis, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University Urumqi 830052, China.
Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China.
Insects. 2023 Jun 6;14(6):531. doi: 10.3390/insects14060531.
Tomato leafminer (), an important quarantine pest in China, was first detected in China in Yili, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in 2017. Its damage has grown in recent years, severely harming Solanaceae plants in China and causing enormous economic losses. The study and prediction of the current and future suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China can provide an important reference for the monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of the pest. Here, tomato leafminer's potential distributions in China under the current climate and four future climate models (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with ArcGIS software, and the accuracy of the prediction results was tested. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the models were all greater than 0.8, and the test omission rate of the model simulation results basically agreed with the theoretical omission rate, suggesting that the prediction results had satisfactory accuracy and reliability. Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China are mainly distributed in most of North China, most of East China, most of South China, most of Central China, most of Southwest China, some parts of Northeast China, and only a few parts of Northwest China. Annual mean temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution. The suitable habitats for tomato leafminer will shift under different future climate models: Under SSP1-26, the highly suitable habitats will spread to the north and northeast and to the southeast coastal areas; under SSP2-45, the size of highly suitable habitats will grow from the present to 2080 and shrink from 2081 to 2100; under SSP3-70, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards, but the highly suitable habitats in southeast coastal areas will shrink from 2081 to 2100 and turn into moderately suitable habitats. Under SSP5-85, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards and northwestwards, with the size of highly suitable habitats gradually decreasing and the size of moderately suitable habitats increasing. Different climates will lead to different distributions of suitable habitats for tomato leafminer, with annual mean temperature, isothermality, and mean diurnal range as the main environmental influences.
番茄潜叶蛾是中国一种重要的检疫性害虫，2017年首次在中国新疆维吾尔自治区伊犁被发现。近年来其危害不断扩大，严重危害中国茄科植物并造成巨大经济损失。研究和预测番茄潜叶蛾在中国当前及未来的适生区，可为该害虫的监测、预警及防控提供重要参考。在此，利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型结合ArcGIS软件预测了番茄潜叶蛾在中国当前气候及四种未来气候模式（SSP1-26、SSP2-45、SSP3-70和SSP5-85）下的潜在分布，并对预测结果的准确性进行了检验。模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积均大于0.8，模型模拟结果的检验遗漏率与理论遗漏率基本一致，表明预测结果具有满意的准确性和可靠性。在当前气候条件下，中国番茄潜叶蛾的高度适生区主要分布在华北大部分地区、华东大部分地区、华南大部分地区、华中大部分地区、西南大部分地区、东北部分地区以及西北少数地区。年平均温度是限制其分布的主要环境因子。在不同的未来气候模式下，番茄潜叶蛾的适生区将发生转移：在SSP1-26情景下，高度适生区将向北、东北及东南沿海地区扩展；在SSP2-45情景下，高度适生区面积从当前到2080年将扩大，2081年至2100年将缩小；在SSP3-70情景下，高度适生区将向东北方向扩展，但东南沿海地区的高度适生区在2081年至2100年将缩小并变为中度适生区。在SSP5-85情景下，高度适生区将向东北和西北方向扩展，高度适生区面积逐渐减小，中度适生区面积增大。不同气候将导致番茄潜叶蛾适生区分布不同，年平均温度、等温性和平均昼夜温差是主要环境影响因素。
