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基于最大熵模型的中国当前及未来气候条件下(豆科)的潜在种植区域。

Potential planting regions of (Fabaceae) under current and future climate in China based on MaxEnt modeling.

作者信息

Zhang Xiao-Feng, Nizamani Mir Muhammad, Jiang Chao, Fang Fa-Zhi, Zhao Kun-Kun

机构信息

Hainan Academy of Forestry (Hainan Academy of Mangrove) Haikou China.

Department of Plant Pathology, College of Agriculture Guizhou University Guiyang China.

出版信息

Ecol Evol. 2024 May 30;14(6):e11409. doi: 10.1002/ece3.11409. eCollection 2024 Jun.

Abstract

This study modeled the habitat distribution of , a valuable rosewood species, across China under current and future climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, and SSPs585) using MaxEnt. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat, spanning approximately 409,600 km, is primarily located in the central and southern parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Yunnan, as well as in the Hainan provinces, along with the coastal regions of Taiwan, and the Sichuan-Chongqing border. The habitat's distribution is significantly influenced by climatic factors such as temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual precipitation (bio12), while terrain and soil factors play a lesser role. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for is projected to expand, with a northeastward shift in its distribution center. This research not only sheds light on the geoecological characteristics and geographical distribution of in China but also offers a scientific basis for planning its cultivation areas and enhancing cultivation efficiency under changing climate conditions.

摘要

本研究利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),模拟了珍贵红木树种在当前及未来气候情景(共享社会经济路径126、共享社会经济路径245和共享社会经济路径585)下在中国的栖息地分布。我们的研究结果表明,当前适宜栖息地面积约409,600平方千米,主要位于广东、广西、福建和云南的中部和南部以及海南省,还有台湾沿海地区以及川渝边界。栖息地分布受温度季节性变化(生物气候变量4)、最湿润季度平均温度(生物气候变量8)、年平均温度(生物气候变量1)和年降水量(生物气候变量12)等气候因素的显著影响,而地形和土壤因素的作用较小。在未来气候情景下,预计该树种的适宜栖息地将扩大,其分布中心将向东北方向转移。本研究不仅揭示了该树种在中国的地质生态特征和地理分布,还为在气候变化条件下规划其种植区域和提高种植效率提供了科学依据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/78e2/11139971/e3f0862a0d4a/ECE3-14-e11409-g007.jpg

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