Nijhuis Michiel, van Lelyveld Iman
De Nederlandsche Bank, 1000 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Finance, VU Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Entropy (Basel). 2023 May 25;25(6):842. doi: 10.3390/e25060842.
Outliers are often present in data and many algorithms exist to find these outliers. Often we can verify these outliers to determine whether they are data errors or not. Unfortunately, checking such points is time-consuming and the underlying issues leading to the data error can change over time. An outlier detection approach should therefore be able to optimally use the knowledge gained from the verification of the ground truth and adjust accordingly. With advances in machine learning, this can be achieved by applying reinforcement learning on a statistical outlier detection approach. The approach uses an ensemble of proven outlier detection methods in combination with a reinforcement learning approach to tune the coefficients of the ensemble with every additional bit of data. The performance and the applicability of the reinforcement learning outlier detection approach are illustrated using granular data reported by Dutch insurers and pension funds under the Solvency II and FTK frameworks. The application shows that outliers can be identified by the ensemble learner. Moreover, applying the reinforcement learner on top of the ensemble model can further improve the results by optimising the coefficients of the ensemble learner.
异常值在数据中经常出现,并且存在许多用于查找这些异常值的算法。我们通常可以验证这些异常值,以确定它们是否为数据错误。不幸的是,检查这些点很耗时,而且导致数据错误的潜在问题可能会随时间变化。因此,异常值检测方法应该能够最佳地利用从验证真实情况中获得的知识并相应地进行调整。随着机器学习的发展,这可以通过在统计异常值检测方法上应用强化学习来实现。该方法使用一组经过验证的异常值检测方法,并结合强化学习方法,随着每增加一点数据来调整该组方法的系数。使用荷兰保险公司和养老基金在偿付能力II和FTK框架下报告的粒度数据说明了强化学习异常值检测方法的性能和适用性。该应用表明,集成学习器可以识别异常值。此外,在集成模型之上应用强化学习器可以通过优化集成学习器的系数来进一步改善结果。