Department of Mathematics, School of Sciences, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot, 010051, China.
Department of Mechanics, School of Sciences, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot, 010051, China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 7;13(1):11037. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38129-2.
It has been reported that cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become one of the major threats to global public health and is associated with climate change. Several previous studies have shown the influence of ambient temperature on CVD, but lack some evidence for the short-term effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on CVD mortality in northeast China. This is the first study to assess the correlation between DTR and CVD mortality in Hulunbuir located in northeast China. Daily CVD mortality data and meteorological data were collected from 2014 to 2020. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to exploring the short-term impact of DTR on CVD mortality. Stratified analyses by gender, age, and season were conducted and the short-term impacts of extremely high DTR on CVD mortality were investigated. In this study, a total of 21,067 CVD mortality cases were recorded in Hulunbuir, China from 2014 to 2020. Compared to the reference value (11.20 [Formula: see text]C, 50[Formula: see text] percentile), a "U-shaped" non-linear relationship between DTR and CVD mortality was observed, and extremely high DTR increased the risk of CVD mortality. The short-term effect of extremely high DTR occurred immediately and lasted up to 6 days. In addition, the male and the age [Formula: see text] 65 groups were more likely to be affected by extremely high DTR compared with the female and the age < 65 groups, respectively. The results also showed that extremely high DTR in cold season had a more adverse effect on CVD mortality than warm season. This study suggests that extremely high DTR for cold season should be paid enough attention to for residents in northeast China. The male and the age [Formula: see text] 65 groups were more vulnerable to the impacts of DTR. The study results may provide some suggestions for decision-making by local public health authorities to avoid the adverse impacts of high DTR, and improve the health of residents, especially vulnerable groups in cold season.
据报道,心血管疾病(CVD)已成为全球公共卫生的主要威胁之一,且与气候变化有关。先前的几项研究表明环境温度对 CVD 的影响,但缺乏关于昼夜温度范围(DTR)对中国东北地区 CVD 死亡率短期影响的证据。这是第一项评估位于中国东北地区的呼伦贝尔 DTR 与 CVD 死亡率之间相关性的研究。从 2014 年到 2020 年,收集了每日 CVD 死亡率数据和气象数据。应用广义线性回归分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)评估 DTR 对 CVD 死亡率的短期影响。进行了性别、年龄和季节的分层分析,并研究了极高 DTR 对 CVD 死亡率的短期影响。在这项研究中,2014 年至 2020 年期间,在中国呼伦贝尔共记录了 21067 例 CVD 死亡病例。与参考值(11.20°C,50%分位数)相比,DTR 与 CVD 死亡率之间观察到“U 型”非线性关系,极高的 DTR 增加了 CVD 死亡率的风险。极高 DTR 的短期影响是立即发生的,并持续长达 6 天。此外,与女性和年龄<65 岁组相比,男性和年龄≥65 岁组更容易受到极高 DTR 的影响。结果还表明,寒冷季节极高的 DTR 对 CVD 死亡率的影响比对温暖季节更不利。本研究表明,中国东北地区应充分重视寒冷季节极高的 DTR,男性和年龄≥65 岁的人群更容易受到 DTR 的影响。研究结果可能为当地公共卫生当局的决策提供一些建议,以避免 DTR 产生的不利影响,改善居民,特别是寒冷季节弱势群体的健康状况。